Exclusive. Forty-five days before the first round, Frédéric Dabi, Director General of Ifop, and Jean-Philippe Dubrulle, Director of Studies analyze for Paris Match the seventh week of our Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Match-LCI-Sud- Radio, #LaPrésidentielleInRealTime.
Macron, unsinkable thanks to the Ukrainian crisis?
Emmanuel Macron remains imperturbably at the top of the voting intentions of the French since the start of the rolling, with around a quarter of the votes cast, or as much, if not more than all the candidates to his left combined. More specifically, its score rose 26% on Friday February 25, an increase of 1.5 points over the week, after an inverse erosion from 26 to 24.5% at the end of the previous week. The latter, which occurred at a time when Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to find a positive outcome to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis seemed to be slipping, reflected in the eyes of some the president’s difficulties in weighing in the big international game. It is clear today that the gap between the voluntarism displayed by Emmanuel Macron and the lack of success of his initiatives does not constitute a promising angle of attack with regard to the undeclared candidate. On the contrary, the transition from latent conflict to hostilities could work in favor of the outgoing president, both by distinguishing him from his adversaries – some of whom are already reduced to sometimes ambiguous remarks with regard to Russia, but also thanks to a “flag effect” a phenomenon that has already occurred and resulted in increases in popularity of Emmanuel Macron on several occasions during the Covid-19 crisis. Elements on which the current tenant of the Élysée can capitalize, especially since the international situation seems to force him to formalize his candidacy at the very last minute.
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Le Pen vs Zemmour: duel for the second round
Uncertainty over the identity of Emmanuel Macron’s challenger in the second round of the presidential election is higher than ever. Indeed, over the last week, Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour have not stopped passing in front of each other. This tango of the curves of voting intentions, over an interval of one point, ends this week with an advantage for the candidate of the National Rally, credited with 16.5% of the voting intentions, against 15.5% for the leader of Reconquest!. In detail, the candidate with the strongest momentum since the start of the rolling still represents a structural threat for Marine Le Pen, but also for Valérie Pécresse, insofar as he captures a significant part of their respective electorates (22% of voters of François Fillon and 30% of those of Marine Le Pen in 2017). An increase in voting intentions in his favor would therefore automatically result in a “siphoning” of Marine Le Pen’s reserves. But if the two far-right candidates appear today as the most serious contenders for accession to the second round, it remains to be seen what impact the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will have on their respective ratings…
The ordeal of Valérie Pécresse and the left
… Because their trial in Russophilia would represent today the only way for Valérie Pécresse to go up the slope and catch up with her competitors on the right. The Republican candidate is suffering this week from the lowest scores she has ever recorded in the rolling: 14% in the first round and 42% in the second round against Emmanuel Macron. In the first lap, although the gap with Éric Zemmour remains slim (1.5 points), Valérie Pécresse’s curve continues to draw a false flat. In the second round, the fact that she achieved lower scores than Marine Le Pen reflects a lack of credibility to beat Emmanuel Macron, which undermines her argument as the candidate most likely to win. This progressive weakening of the Pécresse candidacy (although it still manages to mobilize one in two Fillon voters in 2017) occurs in a sequence marked by its performance criticized at the Zénith de Paris and, now, by the investigation into the irregularities surrounding the Republican primary (20% of voters mentioned it this week). On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is still leading the race, with 11% of voting intentions, ahead of a left that remains both weak and fragmented. The only dynamic observed: that of Fabien Roussel, who reached up to 4.5% of voting intentions this week, to settle today at 4%.
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