In South America’s largest democracy, the runoff election for the presidency will take place today – a directional election. Will the ultra-right Jair Bolsonaro win re-election or will the former left-wing head of state Lula da Silva return to power? Recent polls assume a close race – with a slight advantage for Lula da Silva.
SRF News: Did Lula da Silva have the better final sprint in this campaign?
David Karasek: Yes, I would say so. Lula campaigned better overall. Above all, he managed to credibly approach the middle: A large part of the financial elite in São Paulo, the economic center of the country, is behind Lula.
Lula campaigned better.
Former presidential candidate Simone Tebet, a centrist who dropped out in third place a month ago, is now officially backing Lula. Lula didn’t make any mistakes during the election campaign either, unlike Bolsonaro.
What happened?
Bolsonaro had a miserable last week. During an election campaign appearance in a favela, he first flirted with 14-year-old Venezuelan girls, described them as provocative and then denounced them as prostitutes. This gave strong negative headlines.
Bolsonaro has been saying for years: Arm yourself, fight back. Now someone has done it and that was a very disturbing event for many.
Bolsonaro was most damaged by an incident a week ago. Politician Roberto Jefferson, a political ally, should be arrested for a couple of crimes. During the arrest, he shot the police and threw hand grenades at them. Bolsonaro therefore had to justify himself. Above all, this incident shows what Bolsonaro’s hate discourse can lead to. He’s been saying for years: Arm yourself, fight back. Now someone has done it and that was also a very disturbing event for many right-wing conservative voters.
Lula, for example, had to officially announce that he wasn’t Satan.
The election campaign was marked by misinformation and serious mutual accusations. Is the population happy that this mudslinging is over now?
Yes, this second round of the election campaign in particular was characterized by fake news and hatred: Bolsonaro was said to be a pedophile and a cannibal, while Lula was Satan because he wanted to persecute all Christians and close all churches. This misinformation, as absurd as it sounds, is believed. They determine the debate in such a way that the candidates had to calm the minds with statements. Lula, for example, had to officially announce that he wasn’t Satan.
Many Bolsonaro supporters are armed and the mood is heated. Bolsonaro has long had doubts about the electronic voting system used in the election. How big is the risk of violent unrest should Bolsonaro lose?
This danger exists. I would say the atmosphere is more heated and tense than it was in the first ballot a month ago. And that mainly has to do with a decision of the Supreme Court. It made fake news a punishable offense just over a week ago. Posting false or out of context reports must be removed and a fine may be imposed.
Most of Bolsonaro’s supporters are armed, notably because of his lax gun laws.
Bolsonaro supporters are furious, they see this decision as censorship and another sign that the Supreme Court or judiciary is on Lula’s side.
The hard core of his supporters are now causing great concern. Most of them are armed, notably because of Bolsonaro’s loose gun laws. Observers here in Brazil fear there will be unrest if Jair Bolsonaro is defeated.
The conversation was conducted by Simone Hulliger.