Prestigious goal
Explosion on Crimean bridge shows Putin’s weakness
10/09/2022 1:09 p.m
The strategically important Crimean bridge to the peninsula annexed by Russia was already a heartfelt project of President Putin when it was built. The danger of an attack on it was therefore also considered to be great. The explosion, which damaged the symbolic structure, puts the Kremlin chief Putin under further pressure.
A massive explosion, blazing wagons and parts of the Crimean Bridge that fell into the sea gave Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin a rude awakening on the day after his 70th birthday. Videos of a freight train’s fuel wagons bursting into flames as the sun rose over the iconic bridge spread wildly on Saturday morning. There was talk of three deaths. Putin’s heart project, the 19-kilometer connection he opened between Russia and the peninsula annexed in 2014, has hit the core.
For a moment it looked as if the lifeline from Russia to the annexed Crimea, which is also important for supplying Russian troops, had been destroyed. This could have had a decisive impact on the front in southern Ukraine. But after a few hours it is clear that the damage is probably not as bad as expected – and can be repaired. The traffic is rolling again.
But after a large number of defeats, the horror in Russia about the new debacle is still great. In contrast, Ukraine is celebrating the attack on the bridge as a new triumph – similar to the sinking of the Russian warship “Moskva” in the spring. “For this holiday we will issue a new stamp with the Crimean bridge – or rather with what is left of it,” announced the Ukrainian post chief immediately. The Secretary of Ukraine’s Security Council combined footage of the partially destroyed structure with a video of Hollywood legend Marilyn Monroe singing the birthday song “Happy Birthday, Mr. President.”
Multipart special operation?
It is unclear what happened and who is to blame for the attack. Russian investigators said a truck loaded with hundreds of kilograms of explosives exploded on the bridge. The fireball is said to have set fire to several tank wagons with diesel on the railway line next to the road. Parts of the road fell into the sea. There were then discussions among experts as to how an explosive device in a truck could cause such serious damage in different places over a distance of more than one kilometer. On Ukrainian television, former Russian MP Ilya Ponomarev, who fled to Kyiv, said it could have been a multi-part special operation.
In August, after the car bomb attack on pro-war Darya Dugina, Ponomarev spoke of an underground organization of pro-Ukrainian partisans that allegedly carried out large-scale attacks. While the Kremlin has so far refrained from assigning blame, many hardliners in Russia see a Ukrainian trace in this “terrorist attack”. However, there is no official commitment from Ukraine. The adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, Mykhailo Podoliak, initially wrote that this was only the beginning. A little later, however, he spread the version that it could have been Russian units themselves, in order to carry out a power struggle between the Ministry of Defense and the domestic secret service FSB on the open stage, fueled by military hardliners.
Even the Ukrainian media proudly reported, citing security circles, that their own secret service, the SBU, had landed a new coup against the Russian occupying forces in a special operation. The SBU itself paid tribute to the attack with a poem.
Protection of the Black Sea idyll
So far, Russia has reacted to the attack in a decidedly sober manner. Despite countless threats from Moscow to hit back hard in an attack on the Crimean Bridge, Putin initially held back. He appointed a commission of inquiry and a new commander for the Russian troops in Ukraine, and ordered the bridge to be guarded more closely. New threats? none.
The power apparatus reacted soberly so as not to panic the tens of thousands of Russian tourists on the holiday peninsula, which was still extremely popular in the golden autumn. Everything is taken care of, said Crimea boss Sergei Aksjonov. He said vacationers should be allowed to stay longer at government expense. The subtropical Black Sea idyll was repeatedly shaken by attacks this summer. There have been several incidents with drones – including around the coastal town of Kerch, where the Crimean Bridge lands. Russian political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya wrote that Putin is used to playing down and putting up with defeats. Putin often strikes back with a long delay.
At the same time, many experts see him as a person driven to war who no longer has the situation under control. Everyone agrees that the images of the burning Crimean Bridge, which is one of the best-secured structures in Russia, are devastating for Putin’s aspirations to become a great power. Military expert Yuri Fyodorov said the damage to the bridge made it difficult to supply Russian troops in the occupied southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia. That could help Ukraine to attack more effectively in its offensive there.
Already in the summer in Crimea, train traffic was temporarily suspended due to the explosion at an ammunition depot in the Dzhankoye region. Time and again important railway systems are hit during the attacks for the supply of the Russian troops. Fyodorov also pointed out that the routes from the Russian region of Rostov to the occupied Donetsk region in the Mariupol area are also heavily used for the delivery of supplies. And there, too, the risk of Ukrainian attacks is considered high.
attack on loyalty
Above all, the analysts see a psychological effect, because the Crimean bridge that exploded is not just a “sign of Putin’s weakness.” “All of this leads to a massive weakening of the security structures’ loyalty to the country’s political leadership,” said political scientist Abbas Galliamov. It could lead to discord in the power apparatus and increase the risk of a coup. Galliamov saw little scope for a sharp reaction from the Russian side to the bridge attack.
He does not expect a possible use of a tactical nuclear weapon, which has been discussed again and again, because it is neither effective nor brings any advantage. Above all, the attack on the bridge is another sign that Russia will lose the war. He said, “Defeat must be conceded and a peace treaty signed.”