After weeks of setbacks on the ground in Ukraine, Russia intends to regain the initiative thanks to a weapon it likes, that of referendums. The announcement of such ballots, relating to a “attachment” to the Russian Federation, was carried out simultaneously, on Tuesday, September 20, by the pro-Russian authorities of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. These consultations, announced as a matter of urgency, should take place from September 23 to 27, i.e. an even shorter organization time than during the Crimean annexation referendum in March 2014. This surprise initiative promises a diplomatic escalation and especially military.
“The long-suffering people of Donbass deserve to be part of this great country that they have always considered their homeland”writes on Telegram the leader of the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, Denis Pushilin, asking the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to recognize the result of the vote, “in the event of a positive decision”. In turn, the leaders of the territories held by Moscow made similar statements, without explaining the need for such haste. An additional sign of unpreparedness, the Donetsk authorities first mentioned an electronic ballot, before backtracking.
Of course, no word was said about the participation of the millions of Ukrainian citizens forced to flee these territories in recent years and months. The Russian electoral commission has on the other hand let it be known that it will set up polling stations in Russia for the Ukrainians who have taken refuge there. These announcements seem perfectly coordinated with Moscow. It took a few minutes for Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to indicate that he supported the organization of these consultations. An intervention by Vladimir Putin, but also by his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, was also announced in the evening by sources in the Kremlin.
Serious admission of failure
The announcements by the pro-Russian authorities were greeted with cheers by commentators loyal to the Kremlin. But this enthusiasm barely hides the obvious, that of a serious admission of failure: announced a long time ago, these annexation referendums were only supposed to be held in fully “liberated” territories. However, the Russian army was not even able to conquer the entire Donetsk region, a priority objective of the “special operation” in Ukraine, leading to repeated postponements of the consultation. From now on, it is even the retreat of the Russian forces which dictates the tempo. On Monday, the “civil chamber” of the “People’s Republic of Luhansk” was the first to call for the organization of an emergency consultation.
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