Extrapolations agree
Macron and Le Pen in runoff for presidency
4/10/2022, 8:02 p.m
According to initial projections, incumbent Emmanuel Macron will win the first round of the French presidential election with some degree of clarity. Marine Le Pen, who will join Macron in the April 24 run-off, comes in second.
According to projections, the incumbent head of state Emmanuel Macron and the right-wing Marine Le Pen are ahead in the first round of the French presidential election. As the broadcasters France 2 and TF1 reported after the polls closed, the Liberal and his competitor from the Rassemblement National are moving to the run-off election on April 24th. According to TF1, Macron was well ahead of Le Pen with 24.4 percent with 28.6 percent. France 2 extrapolated Macron at 28.1 percent ahead of Le Pen at 23.3 percent.
Even if many French were dissatisfied with Macron’s first term and he did not inspire enthusiasm in the election campaign, the 44-year-old benefited from the weakness of other candidates and wishes for stability in the face of the Ukraine war. The right-wing populist Le Pen, on the other hand, tried to score points with more moderate tones than before and at the same time presented herself as an advocate for those who are suffering from inflation and rising prices for electricity, fuel and food. The other candidates played a much smaller role in the election campaign.
Macron and Le Pen will now face off on April 24 – a repeat of the 2017 runoff duel in which Le Pen ultimately lost to Macron. Polls predicted a much tighter outcome for this time. Again and again, the candidate who finished second in the first round won the run-off in the French presidential election.
Conservative Pécresse warns against Le Pen
The former mainstream parties in France, the Socialists and Conservatives, suffered historic defeats. According to the projections of the broadcasters France 2 and TF1, the middle-class conservative party Les Républicains with lead candidate Valérie Pécresse only received 4.6 to 5 percent of the votes. In her speech to the party, Pécresse made no secret of her disappointment. She warned against “political extremes” and thus strongly opposed the election of Marine Le Pen.
The Socialists, who were President François Hollande from 2012 to 2017, fell to 1.9 to 2.1 percent. They started with Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo. This reinforces the unprecedented loss of importance of the Parti Socialiste, which was one of the key political forces in post-war France and had two presidents, Hollande and Francois Mitterand.
Concern for the unity of Europe
A victory for the 53-year-old Le Pen would be a shock with significant consequences for Germany and Europe. Le Pen questions the decades of close cooperation with Berlin and is more interested in cooperation with Eurosceptics. In the European Union, France could change from being a driver to a brakeman under her, in a very different way than under the pro-European Macron. In the escalating crisis between the West and Russia, Europe and the USA fear that the solid pro-Ukraine front will crumble.
Le Pen is competing for the third time. The long-time politician, who succeeded her father in the party leadership of the Rassemblement National (formerly: Front National), is committed, among other things, to restricting immigration and social benefits for foreigners.
Macron, who backed economic progress during the election campaign, made it into the Élysée Palace in 2017 with his La République en Marche movement. At that time a more left-wing candidate, he now increasingly represents liberal-conservative issues. Before becoming president, he worked as an investment banker, advised the socialist President François Hollande and was Minister of Economy from 2014 to 2016 under him.