Anyone who knows Russia knows that hopes of negotiations with Putin are a dangerous illusion. For him, war and terror have long since become an end in themselves. This is clear to the Ukrainians. They know that if they want to live in peace and freedom, they must defeat Russia.
The idea, hotly debated abroad, of being able to negotiate a ceasefire or even an end to the war with the warlord in the Kremlin sooner or later, is not being seriously considered by either Ukrainian or Russian politicians and experts. Anyone who understands Russian and knows the power in Russia first-hand and is familiar with Ukrainian and Russian history cannot come to any other conclusion: Putin does not want to negotiate. This also applies to Russian observers, regardless of which political camp they belong to, whether they are in exile or in Russia.
World chess champion Garry Kasparov, who lives in the USA, describes the idea of being able to conduct substantial negotiations with Putin’s Russia as a dangerous illusion. For Putin, Ukraine doesn’t even exist as a negotiating partner; he just wants to dictate his terms to it. Putin’s nationalist supporters and critics, such as the currently imprisoned war criminal Igor Girkin, want to expand the war and are demanding increasingly brutal decisions from the ruler in the Kremlin.
For Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has not banned negotiations with Putin, as is often reported in the German media. But the Ukrainian Security Council officially stated in October 2022 that negotiations with Putin were impossible – after he declared four Ukrainian oblasts annexed, including areas that were and are under Ukrainian control then and now.
Putin now believes his own lies
Putin does not want to and cannot end the war because he cannot win, said Russian journalist Alexander Nevzorov, who took Ukrainian citizenship in 2022 and left Russia, recently said. “For if Putin’s schizophrenic dreams come true by a miracle, the occupation of Ukraine, it will not be a victory, but a huge general war will collapse into a thousand small hot wars, sustained, fed with human flesh, soaked with human blood and with iron must be taken care of. Putin eats war, he drinks war, he is clothed in it. That is why he will continue the war against all common sense.”
Newzorov is right. Putin will never see that the price of war is too high, as supporters of arms supplies hope in the West. Western commercial cost-benefit calculations fail to recognize the character of this war and that of the warlord in the Kremlin, who is now himself a driven man and is caught up in insoluble contradictions.
One reason why you cannot have serious negotiations with Putin’s Russia with the aim of ending the war is because Russian politics has only a tactical relationship to the truth. One of Putin’s former comrades-in-arms in the KGB, Sergei Zhirnov, who now lives in France, says that Putin has been dangerous since the 2014 occupation of Crimea because he has since then believed in his own lies – making the worst mistake an agent can make . Lies and legends are intended to confuse the enemy, not his own people, and certainly not the professional liar himself. But Putin cannot even name specific war goals; for him, war and terror have long since become an end in themselves.
The victory must be politically desired
Foreigners without any knowledge of the language or country like to have nice illusions about Russia. Their lives are not in danger, their skies are clear, the sirens in their cities are not wailing. They can freely weigh up the pros and cons of arms deliveries or strategic decisions by the Ukrainian army. A few brave people come to Ukraine for a few days and then write “mood reports”.
One of the greatest strangenesses of this war is the amazement abroad at the Ukrainians’ military successes and their certainty of victory. Conversely, the Ukrainians are amazed that people can doubt their victory. By victory they mean the liberation of their entire territory, including Crimea. Quite apart from political or international legal considerations: a Russian military presence in Crimea would always be a massive threat to Ukraine’s security. When and how this will be accomplished will be decided by the specialists who have often proven their excellent skills. The Ukrainians have no choice but to win anyway because they want to live in peace and freedom.
The formula for victory is actually quite simple. Together, the Ukrainians and the 50 countries supporting them should be stronger in a conventional war than Russia’s fake army. It just has to be politically desired.
Ukraine has already achieved some victories
After all, Ukraine has already inflicted five defeats on the occupiers, as Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently explained. Ukrainians did not allow themselves to be paralyzed and shocked by fear at the beginning of the great Russian invasion, as their opponents had hoped and their Western allies feared. That was the first victory. Then they thwarted the Russian plan to take the capital Kiev, another important stage victory. They have also won on the diplomatic front, their culture is more popular than ever before. They have also successfully carried out counterattacks and liberated more than a thousand villages and settlements from Russian reign of terror. And they defeated the Russians’ rocket terror by surviving the harshest winter in decades relatively unscathed.
In my local bar in the center of the central Ukrainian city of Poltava, people drink to victory every day, usually with the first toast. It used to be an almost sacred tradition to drink first to the happiness of the get-together, then to the women and to the men and to special events or achievements. These toasts were often phrased in humorous and flowery terms and decorated with aphorisms. But nowadays the toast to victory comes without any embellishments. One wishes for a sky without enemy missiles, peaceful sleep, and for all soldiers to return home healthy. Utopian wishes for now, but believing in their realization gives strength.
If the war teaches us anything, it is to manage our forces, not to get caught up in pointless discussions and, above all, to accept the principle of the division of labor. Everyone does the best they can in their place. Everyone knows that the war will not necessarily end even after the liberation of even the entire occupied territory. For this to happen, the balance of power in Russia would have to change, although this is possible at any time.
Even Putin’s propagandists doubt victory
Even in the propaganda broadcasts on Russian state television, slight doubts about a Russian victory have been repeatedly expressed. The general director of the Russian film company Mosfilm, Karen Shakhnazarov, warned against certainty of victory and further self-deception. “I don’t know whether we will win. We didn’t organize this war against the entire West. We didn’t prepare society for it. Discipline and iron organization will win. That decides everything. But we don’t have that in our society. ” The Ukrainian president was also underestimated; he was full of energy and probably not a puppet, as was always claimed.
Outrageous statements. Until now, Zelensky has been described with the worst possible words on Russian state television, but now he is suddenly portrayed as a strong, dangerous, independent leader. What was already unheard of was that the audience at Putin’s speech to the nation on February 21, 2023 seemed apathetic and bored. High-ranking dignitaries and representatives fought against sleep, and some lost the battle.
Not even the weather is on Russia’s side. The hope that Europe would freeze in winter had not been fulfilled, MP Alexei Shuralev regretted in a television broadcast on the first day of spring. “Europe didn’t freeze. General Frost didn’t do his job.”
One reason for Ukrainians’ optimism is their detailed knowledge of developments in Russia. You don’t need a translator to understand what’s going on, how rapidly Russia is racing towards the abyss. How brutally the Russians treat their own people strengthens the Ukrainians in their dignity and self-respect and also in their belief in their victory.
Christoph Brumme has lived in the central Ukrainian city of Poltava since 2016. He regularly reports from Ukraine for the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” and for German radio stations.