Vladimir Putin appoints Andrei Beloussov, a technocrat, as the new Russian defense minister. It is intended to ensure that the enormous military expenditure for the war of aggression in Ukraine is used more efficiently.
The difference is clear. Sergei Shoigu likes to wear uniforms and is decorated with so many medals that even North Korean officers could be jealous. Andrei Beloussow, on the other hand, opts for simple suits. What the old and new Russian defense ministers have in common is that they have no military background. The change is still bad news for Ukraine.
With Shoigu, Russian President Vladimir Putin is removing a man from the top of the military who both Russian war supporters and Western analysts hold partly responsible for Moscow’s numerous failures, especially at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. With the economist Beloussov as the new defense minister, Putin is strengthening the focus on the economic resources Russia needs to fight a long war.
Putin wants to win the war with the arms industry’s production of weapons. “In his way of thinking, this is logical because the economic bloc proved to be more effective in the war than the security and military apparatus,” said Alexander Baunow, who worked for years as a political analyst at the Carnegie Institute in Moscow and is now at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin is the leading scientist. Putin’s strategy is to put pressure on Ukraine not through the mobilization of new soldiers, but through the capacities of the armaments complex.
Beloussov is an economist. He studied economics in the Soviet Union and served as an economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin in various capacities. He has been deputy head of government since January 2020. How successful the “economic bloc” is can be seen in the head of the central bank, Elwira Nabiullina. It has played a key role in ensuring that Russia has so far largely resisted Western financial sanctions.
Fishing with Putin
Shoigu, on the other hand, is one of the so-called “siloviki,” the “powerful” of the intelligence and security apparatus who occupy key positions in politics and the economy. He was Minister for Disaster Management for many years and received his rank of general there, even though he had no military service. In 2012 he became defense minister. Despite numerous mistakes and setbacks by the Russian army in its invasion of Ukraine, as well as widespread corruption in arms contracts, Shoigu was virtually untouchable. This was mainly due to his closeness to Putin, who places great value on loyalty. Both men had vacationed together in Shoigu’s homeland several times and had themselves photographed fishing.
Shoigu also survived the uprising of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group almost a year ago. The mutiny was explicitly directed against the Defense Minister and the Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, whom Prigozhin accused of failing. After the collapse of the uprising and the death of the mercenary leader in a plane crash, Shoigu’s position was consolidated. However, in April his deputy, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on corruption charges. This indicated that Shoigu would soon have to vacate his post. He will now become secretary of the National Security Council. Formally, this is a climb. But Shoigu no longer has any direct powers.
As Russia’s army advances in Ukraine, the time has come for Putin to replace the defense minister. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said military spending was now so high that it needed to be controlled by someone like Beloussov. This year alone, the military will have the equivalent of around $117 billion at its disposal. Almost a third of the Russian state budget goes to the defense budget.
In contrast to Shoigu and his entourage, Beloussov is not considered corrupt. “He is absolutely not corrupt,” the Financial Times quoted a person who has known him for decades as saying. “Belousov … will not pretend to command the army like a general with many medals.” He is a workaholic who Putin knows very well. The son of a Soviet economist worked in academia before joining the government in 1999. He was Minister for Economic Development, then economic advisor to Putin and most recently Deputy Prime Minister.
Given the enormous costs, the Kremlin is trying to put the war on an economically viable basis and use defense spending more efficiently for the invasion of Ukraine. Beloussov should do his part in this. But that is not the only thing that would increase Ukraine’s problems. The new defense minister could replace Gerasimov, who has been criticized in Russia for his ineffectiveness, and put a more capable man at the head of the general staff.