Putin’s annexations mask political problems

Russia’s constitutional court and both chambers of parliament have approved the annexation of the four Ukrainian territories. However, doubts about the Kremlin’s strategy are growing.

Members of the Russian Federation Council during the session where they unanimously approved the “annexation” of four Ukrainian provinces.

Russian Federation Council / Reuters

The most important thing was unanimity – it was so important that “because of a mistake” on Monday in the State Duma even more yes votes were counted than there were deputies in the hall. Anyone absent aroused suspicion; it was no different on Tuesday in the Federation Council.

At the beginning of the week, Russia’s parliamentarians completed what had already been celebrated on Friday in the Grand Kremlin Palace: the “union” of the four Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk (Russian: Lugansk), Cherson and Zaporizhia (Russian: Zaporozhye) to the Russian Federation. The two “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk will retain this designation and will be included with the status of a constituent republic. Elections for regional leaders and parliaments will not take place until the next possible election date in Russia, next September.

Russia’s external borders unclear

The hasty incorporation of foreign national territory is the act of political gamblers: central questions such as the course of Russia’s external border have not been clarified. The two “People’s Republics” are incorporated into the Russian Federation within the borders of the two Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. However, parts of both regions are under the control of the Kiev government. At Cherson and Zaporizhia it is the area controlled by the occupying forces for the time being, which also includes a corner of the Mikolayiv region.

President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman could not name the exact border; that will be discussed with the regions. So it happens that Russia, which otherwise attaches great importance to border security, willfully negotiates unclear borders and appropriates an area that it does not completely control. What was probably intended as a liberating blow is leading Putin and the power elite still loyal to him into a dead end.

Given the “referendums” held in wartime conditions and an atmosphere of fear and intimidation that legitimize this secession from the Ukrainian state from the Russian perspective, the process is nothing more than an attempt to gloss over a land grab. Over the weekend, the constitutional court definitely made itself the henchman of the regime with the legal review of the affiliation agreements.

The panel did not stop at a legal assessment of the events, which are questionable enough in themselves. It also provided a historical-political justification in the vein of Putin’s revisionist politics of history. The judges also wrote that Ukraine is effectively being controlled from outside, and the Kremlin had no choice but to carry out the “special military operation” to save lives.

The absurdity of the staging: Before the session of the Russian Federation Council on the accession of Ukrainian territories, actors perform a historical re-enactment.

The absurdity of the staging: Before the session of the Russian Federation Council on the accession of Ukrainian territories, actors perform a historical re-enactment.

Ilya Pitalev / Imago

Hasty War Trophies

However, the legal framework is not enough. The incorporation of the four regions is laid down in individual laws, but it will be bumpy. The transition period will last more than three years – until January 1, 2026. By then, the laws are to be amended and the Russian authorities extended to the new areas. The example of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, shows that some citizens are likely to have a rude awakening. New regulations are likely to challenge some old habits, perceived entitlements and ownership structures. The more or less forced naturalization of all residents of the four areas will also pose a dilemma for many of them.

For the moment, against the background of the war and the lack of political and economic perspectives, the pride about the appropriation of supposedly «historical Russian land» seems almost surreal. According to well-connected commentators, Putin’s attempt to get the war trophies to safety before the war is won has shaken the power elite: it only makes it more obvious that this war may not actually be won. But that was the premise for the unity of the circle of power up to now.

No anti-Western upsurge yet

Over the past six months, many civil servants and even more business representatives had supported the war policy with clenched teeth in order not to lose everything. The lack of luck in the war in recent weeks and the almost worrying political improvisation as political scientist Tatyana Stanovaja writes, now some doubt the Russian success. Putin’s increasing unpredictability also contributes to this. His next steps are only clear to a very small circle of insiders. As a result, there is less certainty that the Kremlin boss can still guarantee stability and order.

The propagandists have also grown meek – not because they have changed their views on the need to crush Ukraine. Rather, they want to save the “right thing” in that some shamelessly demand more honesty and others urge patience. Nationalist Duma deputy Dmitry Sablin claimed that for thirty years Russia has been at war with the West, which for years has virtually occupied Russia. The army must now allow itself enough time to train the mobilized forces so that it can then strike back against NATO with all its might.

It is questionable whether the population is actually ready for the “patriotic war” against the West, for which the politicians and propagandists want to make the “special operation”. For the time being, Putin’s reckoning with the “racist, colonialist West” is not really going down well with the population, given the concerns about the war that mobilization has spread to all families.

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