With the jury’s guilty verdict against former President Donald Trump on all 34 charges, the trial over hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels is almost over. What is still missing is the sentence. But even then, the case is not over, in which Trump is accused of falsifying business records in order to illegally influence the 2016 election by making money payments to Daniels. A likely appeal could drag on. Important questions and answers about the historic trial:
Does Trump have to go to prison?
The charge of falsifying business records is a Class E felony in New York, the lowest level of misdemeanor in the state. It is punishable by up to four years in prison, but a fine or probation are also possible. District Attorney Alvin Bragg would not say whether the prosecution is seeking a prison sentence.
Judge Juan Merchan will ultimately decide, but it is unclear to what extent he will take into account the political and logistical difficulties of imprisoning a former president who is seeking re-election to the nation’s highest office. Merchan could, for example, allow Trump to begin serving his sentence only after he has exhausted his appeals.
Despite the guilty verdict, experts believe it is unlikely that Trump will actually end up in prison. The sentence will be announced on July 11 – four days before the start of the Republican National Convention, at which Trump is to be officially chosen as the presidential candidate. The judge could suspend the sentence, order house arrest, ultimately impose only a fine or require Trump to do community service. The fact that Trump has never been convicted in a criminal case before is a favorable factor for him.
What does the guilty verdict mean for the election?
Trump can be elected president despite the guilty verdict. If Trump is sentenced to house arrest, he could hold virtual campaign rallies, said the vice chairwoman of the Republican Party, his daughter-in-law Lara Trump. Given the polarization in the US, it is unclear whether Trump’s criminal conviction will have any impact on the election. Leading strategists from both parties believe that Trump has a good chance of defeating President Joe Biden despite the guilty verdict and further criminal proceedings.
In a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, only 4 percent of Trump supporters said they would withdraw their support if he were convicted of a crime. Another 16 percent said they would reconsider. In the short term, there were at least immediate signs that the conviction is helping to pull the Republican Party together. Trump’s campaign can also expect a flood of donations.
What options does Trump have for an appeal?
Trump can challenge the ruling in an appeals court or in the highest court in New York State. His lawyers have already laid the foundation for this by objecting to charges and decisions in the trial. Among other things, they accused Judge Merchan of being biased because his daughter runs a company whose clients include Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democrats. Merchan rejected the motion for bias. He himself donated small amounts to the Democrats a few years ago.
Trump’s lawyers could also challenge the judge’s decision to limit the testimony of a potential defense expert witness. The defense wanted to call Republican law professor Bradley Smith to refute the argument that the hush money payments violated campaign finance rules.
The defense could also argue that jurors were improperly allowed to hear Daniels’s sometimes graphic testimony about her alleged sexual encounter with Trump in 2006. Defense attorney Todd Blanche argued that Daniels’ description of a power imbalance with the older, larger Trump was irrelevant to the charges but a memorable statement.
What were the weaknesses of the defense?
Calling former federal prosecutor Robert Costello as one of just two defense witnesses may have been a bad idea. Costello was meant to discredit Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen, one of the prosecution’s key witnesses. But while Cohen largely kept his cool under cross-examination, the belligerent Costello antagonized the judge, including by simply talking on the phone or rolling his eyes after objections. It got to the point where Merchan threatened to throw Costello out.
Did Trump shoot himself in the foot?
On the one hand, the defendant was confident of victory, but at the same time tried to prepare for the eventuality of a conviction. He called the entire justice system rigged. He behaved similarly in the 2020 election, which he lost to Biden. Trump insulted Judge Merchan, insulted prosecutor Bragg, complained about members of the prosecution and tried to portray the case as a politically motivated witch hunt. Even Mother Teresa could do nothing against such a nasty accusation, he fumed.
Trump also complained that a judge’s gag order prevented him from speaking about the details of the case outside of court. However, he did not take the witness stand, where he could have spoken. Instead of focusing on the court, Trump focused on public opinion and the voters who will ultimately decide his fate. On the witness stand, however, he would have risked perjury and would also have been subject to cross-examination.
Does the case damage the Republican’s image?
Far worse things are known about Trump than falsifying business records to conceal a hush money payment to a porn star – without any of this having any political impact on him. The sad climax: In front of the eyes of the world, Trump tried to reverse his defeat to Biden after the 2020 presidential election and incited his supporters to attack the heart of US democracy. Three more criminal cases are pending against him for attempted election manipulation and other serious allegations. And just a few months ago, Trump was sentenced to pay millions in a civil case because, according to the court, he had sexually abused a woman in the 1990s and later defamed her.
None of this ended his political career. On the contrary: Trump has made it his speciality to turn every legal accusation into a personal advantage, to portray himself as a “martyr”, to mobilize his supporters and boost his fundraising. His narrative that the political establishment is trying to eliminate him by legal means resonates with many Americans. A guilty verdict only makes it stronger in the Trump universe in an absurd way and fuels a now-more-than-ever mentality, as reactions from Trump supporters after the guilty verdict show.
What is his party doing now?
Trump has his party more firmly under control than ever – despite all the scandals. After the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, it looked for a brief moment as if he was politically finished forever. At the time, even loyal companions initially distanced themselves from him. But out of fear of the party base, which sometimes blindly follows the Republican, one after the other returned to Trump’s side. His march through the party’s internal presidential primaries has shown that he is the clear front man of the Republicans. The entire party’s elite publicly supports the 77-year-old’s presidential bid and criticizes the legal action against him as politically motivated. It is not foreseeable that any of them could now turn away because of the guilty verdict. On the contrary: At the trial in New York, Trump also demonstratively had rows of party colleagues line up for the obligatory expression of solidarity – especially those who want to become something in his possible next government.
And the other processes?
The guilty verdict has no significant impact on the other criminal proceedings. The former president is still charged in three other cases: two cases in the capital Washington and in the state of Georgia concern his attempts to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election. In another case in Miami, he is accused of illegally storing highly sensitive government documents. The charges in these three cases are far more serious than those in the New York trial. One of the charges among many: conspiracy against the United States. But with delaying tactics and legal maneuvers, Trump has managed to torpedo all of these proceedings and postpone the start of the trial in all three cases.
The important election fraud trial against him in Washington is even completely in jeopardy. First, the Supreme Court, as the highest court in the United States, must decide whether Trump might not be immune from prosecution in the case. This will then also have an impact on the two trials in Georgia and Florida. At the moment, it looks as though none of these trials will take place before election day.