Rare separatist congress: will Transnistria now join Russia?

Rare separatist congress
Is Transnistria now joining Russia?

February 28, 2024, 12:03 p.m

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Putin will give his State of the Union speech shortly. It is feared that the Kremlin leader will then announce the annexation of Transnistria. The separatists could apply for this there now. An accession of the region to Russia could also have consequences for Ukraine.

In the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, the pro-Russian separatists ruling there are meeting for a special congress for the first time since 2006. This is only the seventh such meeting in the de facto self-governing region. Observers fear that a new front in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine could be opened in Transnistria. At the last special congress in 2006, the separatists announced a referendum for annexation to Russia, at which an overwhelming majority later voted in favor.

Officials in the region remained tight-lipped about the purpose of the meeting. The separatist region’s Supreme Council said deputies would discuss Transnistria’s “political and socio-economic situation” at the special congress because they had been put under “pressure” by Moldova. Local opposition politician Gennady Chorba said it was “very likely” that MPs would apply to join Russia.

This would happen immediately before the State of the Nation address that Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to give to the Russian Parliament on Thursday. The self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria, controlled by pro-Russian separatists, is located in southwest Moldova on the border with Ukraine. The Ukrainian military fears that Russia could attack from Transnistria towards the nearby southwestern Ukrainian port city of Odessa. The self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria is a breakaway, narrow strip of land on the border with Ukraine.

Bloody civil war in 1992

In 1992, separatists fought the pro-Western Moldovan government in a brief civil war that left hundreds dead. Transnistria now has its own currency, security forces and passports. Around 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed in the area, which belongs to Moldova under international law but is controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Most people in Transnistria are Russian-speaking, and many of them also have Moldovan, Russian or Ukrainian citizenship. Moscow, in turn, supports the region, in which around 465,000 people live, economically and politically – including with free gas deliveries.

However, since the conflict with Ukraine, the connection between Russia and Transnistria has been severely affected. In recent months there have been repeated signs of growing tension in the conflict over Transnistria. In 2022, several explosions with unknown causes rocked the area. In March 2023, the leadership of the pro-Russian separatists declared that Ukraine had carried out a failed assassination attempt against their leader. Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry finally declared that Ukraine was planning a military attack on Transnistria – but provided no evidence of this.