The clock is ticking for the Ukrainian armed forces. The upcoming muddy period presents the troops with major challenges that had already caused problems for Napoleon at the time. According to experts, there are several reasons for the offensive to freeze.
If US Chief of Staff Mark Milley’s calculations are to be believed, Ukraine has less than 35 days to make progress on the offensive. Then the cold comes, it starts to rain and becomes very muddy – a nightmare for heavy equipment such as armored vehicles, which have difficulty moving in the mud. The last few weeks before the start of autumn will therefore be a battle against time for the Ukrainians, even if they themselves say that the muddy period will not stop the offensive.
The so-called Rasputiza describes a phenomenon in which the soil is so softened by the onset of the rainy season in autumn that vast landscapes and unpaved roads are transformed into brown masses of mud for weeks. The phase lasts around six to eight weeks and occurs twice a year, particularly in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, during the autumn rains and as a result of the snow melt in the spring. This is why it is also known as the fifth season in Russia.
The reason for the muddy periods is the geographical conditions: There are no mountains or hills higher than 150 meters between the three cities of St. Petersburg, Moscow and Kiev, which are each about 1000 kilometers apart. The rains in autumn and water masses from snowmelt in spring cannot drain away quickly enough. Due to the type of rock in the smaller mountains, the water cannot seep away in large quantities in order to be later released from sources into streams after being temporarily stored. As a result, the ground softens and turns into mud.
Mud slows down every movement
Ukraine, however, puts the military challenges into perspective: “The fighting will continue,” said Kyiv’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. He admits that it is “more difficult to fight” in cold, wet and muddy conditions. But Kiev doesn’t want to know about an end to the counteroffensive. Western military experts express doubts about the statements. “The coming months in Ukraine will be very tough,” says State Secretary in the Ministry of Defense, Siemtje Möller, summarizing the situation at the American air force base in Ramstein.
For the offensive, the muddy ground primarily means that tracked vehicles have difficulty making progress off well-developed roads. However, Ukraine does not have to change its military tactics much because of this. Due to the densely laid minefields, the armed forces have already switched to attacking on foot in small shock troops in recent weeks instead of using heavy equipment.
Nevertheless, this results in two problems: Firstly, infantry forces can no longer be so easily accompanied by main battle tanks or armored personnel carriers. This is possible, but it will slow down the advance significantly, says Russia expert Gerhard Mangott ntv.de. The mud makes things more difficult not only for the vehicles, but also for the soldiers, which prevents them from making rapid progress. “On the other hand, the effectiveness of such offensive operations without heavy equipment is significantly lower,” said Mangott.
Another challenge is likely to be the rotation of armed forces and the replenishment of reserves. Ukraine is already having problems getting wounded soldiers out of heavily contested areas and bringing in new forces because they are under constant fire from Russian artillery. If the armored vehicles have difficulty moving in the mud or are even stuck in some cases, this could become a serious problem for the troops at the front.
Even Napoleon got stuck in the mud
The circumstances are also not the same on all sectors of the front. “We will experience heavier periods of mud around the city of Bakhmut and on the northern and southern flanks of it,” says Mangott. On the southern front near Zaporizhzhia, where the Ukrainians are trying to break through the Russian defense lines at Robotyne, things won’t be quite as bad because the ground conditions are different. This in turn leads to better infiltration of rainwater. “But it won’t be easy there either,” said the expert.
A German soldier on the Eastern Front after the onset of the mud season, March 1944.
(Photo: picture-alliance / akg-images)
The military problems have by no means only been known since the war of aggression against Ukraine. There are many examples in Russian military history of how troops had to struggle with mud in the past. Already in 1812 Napoleon fell into the murderous trap of underestimating the weather and its consequences in the region. When he and his soldiers attacked Moscow and the Russian Tsar still did not surrender, he was unable to return in time before the onset of winter and bring his troops to safety. The weather already had the area around the Dnipro firmly in its grip: out of half a million soldiers, only 50,000 were still alive at the end.
During the Second World War, the large-scale swamp formations brought the Nazis to their knees. During their attack on the Soviet Union in the spring of 1941, the muddy period lasted unusually long and made it impossible for the German Wehrmacht to advance.
Rainy season is less of a problem for Russians
Ukrainian soldiers also had to clear mud from their trenches last year.
(Photo: REUTERS)
This is already the second Rasputitsa for the Ukrainian armed forces to prepare for. Last year they were able to make progress despite the onset of winter in early November, when the Russians had to withdraw their troops from the right bank of the Dnipro near Kherson. “At that time, because the weather conditions in this region were not so dramatic, it was possible for the Ukrainians to make successful progress,” says Mangott. It therefore always depends heavily on whether the rainy season starts “on time” or only starts two to three weeks later. When winter sets in with icy temperatures and the ground freezes, the tanks make better progress again.
For the Russians, the muddy period has fewer disadvantages than for the Ukrainians. By being on the defensive and not having to move forward, they largely stay in their trenches and try to repel the Ukrainians’ attacks. According to Mangott, the rains cause water to form in the trenches, but not to the extent that they could fill up.
Mangott believes that the different assessments of the military leadership in Kiev and those of NATO and US experts regarding the offensive in the coming months have political reasons. If Ukraine were to admit that it would not make any significant progress due to the weather conditions, it would send a negative political signal. “One would have to admit that only very limited goals have been achieved so far and that another offensive will have to begin in the spring of next year, for which more Western weapons and money will be needed.”
There is therefore great pressure on Ukraine. “There is a danger that some Western states will raise the question of whether it is really possible to recapture significant areas from the Russians or whether it might not be time to hold negotiations,” said Mangott. That would be a big disadvantage for Kiev.