An official of the American central bank (Fed) repeated on Friday that rates would probably have to be raised further this year to succeed in curbing inflation in a sustainable manner, and to remain at a high level for longer than expected.
Inflation is still too high, and I think it will probably be appropriate for the committee to raise rates further and keep them restrictive for a while to bring inflation back to our 2.0% target, said Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor, during a speech to bankers in Vail, Colorado.
The Fed’s monetary policy committee, the FOMC, met on Tuesday and Wednesday, and announced that rates would be maintained at their current level, in the range of 5.25-5.50%.
However, they anticipate an additional increase by the end of 2023, and rates slightly above 5.0% in 2024, a higher level than expected.
Because the slowdown in inflation could be less rapid than hoped, it should remain above 2% at least until the end of 2025, underlined Michelle Bowman.
After slowing for a year, inflation rebounded this summer in the United States, due in particular to the global rise in oil prices.
I see a continuing risk that energy prices will rise further and reverse some of the progress we have seen in inflation in recent months, the governor warned.
Given the mixed data – solid spending but falling inflation and downward revisions to jobs created in previous months – I supported the FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady on Wednesday, she clarified.
This member of the Board of Governors of the Fed also mentioned the spring banking crisis, which followed the bankruptcy in March of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and led to a tightening of credit conditions.
Despite this tightening of standards for granting bank credit, we have not observed signs of a sharp contraction in credit which would considerably slow down economic activity, she detailed.
Since March 2022, the Fed’s main key rate has been raised 11 times, a very rapid pace.
Inflation stood at 3.7% over one year in August, according to the CPI index. The PCE index, favored by the Fed, was 3.3% in July, August data will be published on September 29.