“The End of Abundance”, anticipated by the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, in his very dark back-to-school speech, does not apply to all raw materials. This year, in any case, rapeseed does not eat this bread. Crushing plants will have a lot to eat.
In France, where the harvest has ended, it’s time to weigh in. “Yields have been mixed, but it’s one of the best harvests in ten years”, welcomes Arnaud Rousseau, president of Avril, armed wing of the oilseed sector and powerful agro-industrial firm. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture, production would reach 4.3 million tonnes, a rebound of 31% compared to the lean harvest of 2021 and an increase of 6% compared to the five-year average.
“The rapeseed bonanza” (“the rapeseed bargain”), could be the title of the film whose lucky actors are the farmers. A film that must be rewound until the summer of 2021. A rainy month of August and ideal soft ground gave the signal for sowing. Farmers have not skimped on the seed, planting their hopes on 1.2 million hectares. It is true that the hot price of rapeseed dangled a fat profitability of the oleic seed.
The heat blanket over Canada had reduced canola production to ashes. Knowing that canola is the name given to GMO rapeseed grown across the Atlantic and exported all over the planet, even to France. What ignite the prices. A ton of rapeseed broke its historic record, at nearly 600 euros in the summer of 2021, against 390 euros a year earlier.
Prices remain high
A record shattered in April, when the carpets of golden flowers on edges unfolded as far as the eye could see in the fields. The war in Ukraine brought the prices of raw materials to incandescence, and rapeseed reached 880 euros per ton. While speculation has since declined, prices remain high.
And, this year, the very chaotic weather soap opera was favorable to this plant. “In France, but also in Europe, in Canada – with a return to normal expected around 20 million tonnes –, in Australia and even in Ukraine, where the harvest, estimated at 3 million tonnes, is the second best in the history of this country », underlines Nathan Cordier, analyst of the firm Agritel. Rapeseed, the year of abundance.
For now, this influx of seeds has not weighed too much on prices. The destiny of rapeseed, primarily transformed into biofuel, even if the meal is eaten by animals, is in fact closely linked to that of oil. But palm oil, under the weight of the harvest, has plunged. “Today there is a significant difference of 300 euros between rapeseed and palm oil”, says Mr. Cordier. This ebb and the resumption of sunflower shipments from Ukraine contributed to the decline in oil prices. It remains to be seen whether they will carry the rapeseed in their slide.