Recipes against frustration in the Balkans

“We saw the two faces of the EU,” said Miroslav Lajcak, commenting on the summit of EU heads of state and government at the end of last week: while Ukraine and Moldova gained candidate status, the Western Balkans received no new commitments. “We must not deepen the bitterness in the region,” warned the EU special envoy for the Western Balkans at the European Forum Wachau. “We must not separate East and Southeast.”

The conference in Lower Austria also showed how different the reactions in the two regions were. The Ukrainian foreign minister praised the EU’s decision in a video as an “act of true European sovereignty” which, together with the delivery of heavy weapons, will bring his country closer to victory.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, on the other hand, criticized the “rogue spirit of enlargement”: His country had candidate status for eight years without talks having started. “You can’t be a candidate for marriage to someone who isn’t willing to talk to you,” he noted bitterly. He warned Ukraine against illusions. She has now received a pill against the depression, but will soon find herself in the reality of North Macedonia, which has now been waiting for accession negotiations for seventeen years.

Create new incentives

In Kyiv, people are aware that, despite all the solemn words, EU membership cannot be expected in the near future. In an interview with the NZZ, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg remarked that the accession process had become longer and longer in recent decades. “The six years that Austria needed would be supersonic today.” For Ukraine, like other European politicians, he expects one to two decades.

The question of how to prevent the candidates from being disillusioned for a long time is not only in Austria: The country sees itself as an advocate of the Western Balkans and was until recently rather skeptical about Ukraine’s EU accession, which he also considers years of close ties with Moscow brought criticism.

In order to present a constructive contribution to the discussion in this complex situation, Schallenberg and Europe Minister Karoline Edtstadler recently wrote a so-called non-paper, which is the subject of lively discussion in diplomatic circles. Based on the premise that enlargement is the EU’s strongest geostrategic tool, they want to use it more productively: neighboring countries should be linked to the EU much earlier and then step by step. This creates incentives for further reforms.

By lifting tariffs, such states could export to the EU more easily, and participation in the common energy and climate policy would help to reduce dependency, especially on Russia. Participation in certain EU bodies would also be possible. Each integration step would be linked to the achievement of milestones and could also be reversed if progress was not made.

“Otherwise we will lose them”

Lajcak, who was Slovakia’s foreign minister until 2020, thinks highly of the Austrian approach. “It is the accession process that changes the countries,” he believes. ‘But now we’re putting too many conditions on them before they even begin. That’s wrong.” For Edtstadler, the goal is to give the countries a credible European perspective during the long wait. “Otherwise we’ll lose them,” says the Europe Minister, referring to the EU’s rapidly declining appeal in countries like Serbia.

However, some fear that the concept will create a kind of permanent waiting room, a re-creation of the “Eastern Partnership” that accommodates associated countries that will never become full members. The skepticism is also based on the fact that not only is the non-paper talking about a “new European economic community and community of values”, but also French President Emmanuel Macron European political community wants to launch.

Austria’s Foreign Minister Schallenberg also concedes that it is a “crucial question” whether the EU will muster the political will for massive expansion to the east and south-east, especially against the background of sharply rising inflation and the foreseeable costs of admitting these poor countries.

But the Russian invasion mobilized a lot of political will because the EU realized what was at stake in the East. The danger now is that you forget to look to the southeast. «The Western Balkans is not the backyard. This is Europe’s courtyard.” Neglecting this means giving space to geopolitical competitors like Russia or China. “Either we prevail or someone else. There is no vacuum in politics.”

exploiting tensions

Bosnia-Herzegovina shows how Russia’s war in Ukraine is also worsening the security situation in the Western Balkans. There, according to Miroslav Lajcak, the politicians of the three entities that make up the state used the tensions between East and West to strengthen their positions at the expense of the others. As an example, he cites the meeting of the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, with Putin in mid-June. “Instead, as an international community, we must insist that Bosnian politicians sit down and tackle their problems,” Lajcak demands. This also only works with incentives.

Austria has now reachedthat the EU will reconsider the issue of Bosnia’s candidate status if the country adopts reforms before October’s elections. The issue of visa liberalization for Kosovo is back on the agenda. There is also discussion about separating the accession processes of Albania and North Macedonia. Bulgaria’s parliament, which has been blocking North Macedonia’s accession for years, voted on Friday to lift its veto – albeit with conditions unacceptable to the neighboring country. The situation in the Balkans remains complex, says Lajcak, “but the trend still makes me a little optimistic.”