Germany supplies the Leopard and also approves deliveries from other countries. Expert Markus Reisner explains to ntv.de whether German tanks could provoke Putin on the battlefield and which weapons must come after the tanks.
ntv.de: The decision was made last night: Germany will supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks. Many experts have been calling for this for months. How important is time at this point in the war?
Markus Reisner: It can become a decisive factor because Ukraine is running out of time.
Because Russia can use them to prepare the spring offensive?
Exactly! Ukraine must go back on the offensive as soon as possible. That’s one reason Leopard should have been sent much sooner. It is important to look at what Russia is doing: in February last year, the troops took off with around 3,300 main battle tanks, 1,300 of which were destroyed. 2000 tanks are still operational. However, Moscow has more than 10,000 other vehicles in its inventory, and parts of these are currently being repaired.
Colonel Markus Reisner is a military historian, head of the research and development department at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt and commander of the Austrian Guard Battalion. He has analyzed the war in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion.
(Photo: Screenshot)
Russia still has 10,000 main battle tanks in stock?
You have to keep in mind that these are leftover stocks from all over the former Soviet Union. Of course, many of the devices are in deplorable condition, but Russia could put about 2,000 vehicles into battle-ready condition. Then the army would have around 4,000 main battle tanks. The longer it takes Ukraine to get back on the offensive, the closer Russia gets to that goal of 4,000 tanks.
Is that why Chief of Staff Valeriy Saluschnyj has now become so concrete in his demands? He needs 300 main battle tanks, 600 to 700 armored personnel carriers and other artillery systems from the west.
And now look what the West is talking about: When it comes to infantry fighting vehicles, there are commitments for 59 Bradleys from the USA and 40 German Marder tanks, as well as an unknown number of French scout tanks. The situation was even more precarious for main battle tanks. However, there is movement here at the moment.
Apparently 30 or more US Abrams, 14 British Challengers, 14 French Leclerc. In addition, 14 Leopards from Germany, 14 from Poland, and then Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia and the Netherlands could also join.
Makes just over a hundred heavy tanks in total. With these offers, we are still well below the Ukrainian demand of 300 units, which is based on the enemy’s 2,000 to 4,000 main battle tanks.
The training of the Ukrainian soldiers is only just beginning. In your estimation: how much time will this take?
The goal of the training is decisive for this assessment: If the Ukrainians are striving to enable the soldiers to “operate” the Leopard as a single shooter, then a few weeks can suffice. After all, the occupation does not start from scratch, but the soldiers have already used Soviet systems. So you have to familiarize yourself with the special features of the Leopard.
Then you would give up the full effectiveness of the tanks in the “combat of combined arms” in favor of speed?
Yes, there would not be enough time for that. However, the interaction of the individual weapons in the group is extremely important. Marten and leopard, for example, have been developed and designed to complement each other. They achieve the highest operational value when operated by soldiers who have been trained together and have practiced combat at unit level together with both types of tanks. Only in these combat exercises do they experience the strengths and weaknesses of the system. If this training is missing in the association, then the weapons can hardly develop their effect and the danger increases that they become easy prey. I would estimate at least eight to twelve weeks for such a training.
Is it possible to say what exactly Ukraine is planning with the tanks?
Two corps are to be set up with these tanks, one at Poltava and one at Dnieper. There the army has several options. At the moment it would be advantageous to advance from the Zaporizhia area in the direction of Melitopol or even Mariupol in order to more or less encircle the Russian forces in Zaporizhia, Cherson and the Crimea.
Could German tanks then also drive in Crimea?
That would be quite conceivable within the framework of operational planning, because the heavy western battle tanks would be the spearhead of every offensive movement.
The background to the question is as follows: almost half of Germans are skeptical about Leopard deliveries. And many suspected a concern behind the chancellor’s long hesitation: Putin could feel particularly provoked by German tanks.
A supply of German-made tanks in this quantity could allow Ukraine to go back on the offensive. But it cannot weaken Russia to such an extent that Putin would feel threatened by it. 600 Leopards would have to roll out and many other weapon systems would have to be delivered so that they could militarily pose an existential threat to Russia. The Kremlin has to worry far more about the delivery of precision weapons that have a range of 160 kilometers. Or fighter planes! They make a difference.
However: You put a rocket launcher like this somewhere, it hardly makes an appearance. On the other hand, the German tank on the battlefield – doesn’t that have much more symbolic power?
Of course, an attack by German tanks is loaded with a lot of symbolism and is reminiscent of Nazi Germany’s war of annihilation against the Soviet Union. When German tanks are delivered, emotions run high in Russia, of course. There is a quasi-“bounty” offered in the social networks – a reward for the soldier who shoots through the first German tank. That plays a role in Russian propaganda, but that was also the case with the Panzerhaubitze 2000. That always resonates in this war, which is also an information war.
Some are concerned that Putin could separate Germany from the ranks of Ukraine supporters as a special aggressor – and attack.
As I said – militarily other weapons are much more threatening for Russia. 100 Leopard are not enough for that. Nevertheless, Ukraine urgently needs main battle tanks because they are indispensable for an offensive. The fronts are almost frozen, there is a stalemate – bloody battles in which neither of the warring parties can claim resounding successes. Ukraine urgently needs to get out of this stalemate and, above all, before Russia goes on the offensive. Because of the concern you described not to deliver Leopards, that would mean bowing to the Russians.
It sounds like we’re at a very crucial point right now.
I draw a historical comparison with the year 1915. The framework conditions were very different back then, but the basic mood was similar, it was the year of disillusionment. The assumptions that were made did not materialize, and one was forced to switch to a war economy, to mobilize one’s own forces and prepare for a long war.
And today …. ?
…. we realized that the Russians are not yet collapsing despite the disaster during the invasion, but that they have more staying power in the current war of attrition due to their resources. Now we have to face this: either we make a tough decision, which is to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, or we have to admit that for various reasons we cannot.
And then bear the consequences.
What we are witnessing now is historically nothing new. This has happened again and again in many conflicts. With disillusionment, one realizes that the war is developing differently than expected. That’s exactly where we are now, and with the decision on tank deliveries, it’s getting down to business. Now you can see how far we are willing to help Ukraine. It will not be able to liberate the occupied territories if we do not massively expand its capabilities again in the coming weeks. The convenience of the first delivery of weapons will no longer exist.
How should the arms deliveries of the future look like?
Ukraine needs much more anti-aircraft defenses against Russian attacks on infrastructure and population. Multiple rocket launchers, with which successes were achieved in the summer, are also significant. In Ramstein, a first delivery of multiple rocket launchers with a range of 160 kilometers was announced. The Netherlands is currently examining the possibility of supplying F-16 fighter jets. Those will be the weapon systems in question. Then the wheat separates from the chaff.
Frauke Niemeyer spoke to Markus Reisner