Reisner’s view of the front: “Putin wants to stop the Ukrainian offensive before winter”

The Ukrainians are trying to push their offensive as far as possible until the rainy season begins. In order to keep them running in the winter, Ukraine needs the promised ATACMS missiles, says Colonel Markus Reisner. They can’t save the current offensive, but they can be preparation for the coming spring offensive: “The range of the surface-to-surface missiles is forcing the Russians to reorganize their positions,” says Reisner in a weekly interview. But that is exactly what President Putin is trying to prevent in order to advance plans for a Russian winter offensive.

ntv.de: There is currently a lot of movement on the front. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) calls the situation around Orikhiv in Zaporizhia “extremely dynamic”. Have Ukrainian forces been able to break through another defensive line there in the last week?

Markus Reisner: A certain dynamic has actually developed in the last 48 hours. There are still three main thrust directions: one south of Bakhmut, which serves primarily to tie down significant Russian forces, and the two thrust directions north of Melitopol and north of Mariupol. In Zaporizhia, north of Melitopol and south of Orikhiv, the Ukrainians have managed to get a second foot in the door. This means that they managed to break through the Russian defense lines at Werbowe for a second time. This is another success in the Ukrainians’ attempt to slowly break through this first line of defense.

The ISW itself emphasizes that the collapse of the defense line itself is not an operational breakthrough and that Ukraine should not expect rapid advances before the winter. Does this mean that we have to prepare for a long offensive that will continue with small successes until the end of the year or early spring 2024?

It is the first time that the ISW has presented this in this way. For the first time you are talking about the fact that the breakthrough has not been achieved. The offensive, which has been underway since June 4th, has not yet achieved the desired result, namely the breakthrough that was supposed to act like a dam burst. Given the impending rain, the Ukrainian offensive is virtually in danger of failure.

Kiev repeatedly emphasizes that the offensive will not stop, even if the rains and mud season begin. How do they plan to keep the offensive going despite bad weather conditions?

It is crucial that the USA now deliver ATACMS to Kiev. The surface-to-surface missiles have a range of up to 300 kilometers. That would give Ukraine enough breathing room to prepare for the next offensive in the spring as the winter begins. However, this also shows that the offensive has not yet achieved its operational goals, so support from the USA is obviously necessary.

How exactly can ATACMS help the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the offensive?

They have several advantages. On the one hand, a large range, although it is not yet clear which type will be delivered, so this can vary. The question also arises as to the corresponding warhead and whether cluster ammunition will be used. Similar capabilities to those of the ATACMS are already present in the Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, but the big advantage is that ATACMS can be fired from HIMARS systems, while Storm Shadow and SCALP must be fired from fighter jets such as SU-24-M . However, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, points out that Ukraine needs several hundred of these systems to actually have an effect, while the US currently only wants to deliver a limited number of 60 to 100. This creates a symmetrical situation on the battlefield again, but Ukraine cannot massively corner the Russians.

Storm Shadow and SCALP are bunker-busting weapons, meaning their warhead is designed to penetrate the earth and break through concrete walls. What is the function of the ATACMS?

That depends on the warhead they carry. So far, the plan is to deliver a version that carries cluster ammunition as a warhead. The warhead is particularly suitable for achieving widespread success, for example against troop gatherings, approaching Russian reserves or even against soldiers in the trenches. Ukraine is already using cluster munitions against the latter, which were recently delivered.

How can the Ukrainians make good use of the ATACMS so that they can continue to make progress with their offensive even in the winter?

That’s where range comes into play. The Russian side is trying to position its command posts and logistics hubs so that they are beyond the reach of Ukrainian artillery or rocket launcher systems. Last summer, the Russians suffered a shock when Ukraine used the HIMARS system. Suddenly, Ukraine could act up to 85 kilometers away, which meant that the Russian side had to reposition itself because it had to move its command posts and nodes from this distance. This gave the Ukrainians time to go on the offensive near Kharkiv and Kherson. The ATACMS now being delivered can achieve exactly the same effect. They work beyond the 85 kilometers of the HIMARS systems and can create pressure on the Russian side, forcing the Russians to reorganize themselves again.

Would the ATACMS have greater success in attacking the Crimean bridges than Storm Shadow or SCALP have so far? Although they destroy the bridge deck, they cannot make the bridges unusable.

This depends on the system supplied. The rocket is basically built in such a way that it can carry different warheads. At the moment there are only rumors that the cluster version will be delivered. However, it may be that warheads are delivered that are better suited to attacking bridges. The delivery of the ATACMS is now putting pressure on Germany to follow suit with the delivery of Taurus. This is very reminiscent of the situation where Germany, after promising to deliver Abrams tanks, then also promised to deliver Leopard tanks. The Leopard tanks have been in use for months, the first Abrams have only just been delivered.

According to information from an insider on the Telegram channel “Kremlin Secrets”, President Putin is said to have ordered his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to stop the Ukrainian offensive by early October. Is that credible?

Absolutely. Russia definitely wants to be able to demonstrate success before winter arrives. It would be ideal if the Ukrainian offensive came to an end. The offensive will automatically decrease in intensity due to the approaching Rasputitsa, the rainy season, which is why Ukraine is trying to achieve success on another level. For example, with massive attacks on Crimea. This also fits with Budanov’s announcement that ATACMS will primarily attempt to attack the railway and road bridges over the Kerch Strait in Crimea. These spectacular successes will help Ukraine maintain momentum in the information space, even as it struggles to advance with troops on the ground.

How exactly does Russia plan to stop the offensive? What military changes will we see?

In principle none. What Russia is already doing is precisely designed to bring about a stop. The deep Russian defense system is designed so that the Ukrainian attackers wear themselves out from line to line. So it may be that Ukraine breaks through the first line now, but then gets stuck on the second and third lines. Then this Russian defense system has served its purpose exactly. There are enough examples from the past here, for example from the Second World War. During the “Vienna Operation”, when the Red Army started its Soviet advance on Vienna, the German Wehrmacht was also intercepted in deeply staggered defensive lines during the Lake Balaton offensive. What the Russians are doing today with the Ukrainians is the same, only they are using additional forces to lay new minefields in the depths.

The Ukrainian forces are also under constant artillery fire from the Russians. Will there be more of this in the future?

Dozens of videos every day show Ukrainian soldiers trying to move slowly in the conquered trenches while being under constant fire. On the one hand through the Russian artillery and Russian rocket launchers, but also through the use of hundreds of these first-person view drones that swoop down on the Ukrainian soldiers. The whole thing is then supplemented by Russian counterattacks. This is reminiscent of the battles of the First World War, where hundreds if not thousands of people were lost in the fight for a few hundred meters. The only question is, who will have the stronger will in this fight?

Is there another reason why Putin now wants the counteroffensive to stop before winter?

There are several speculations about this. For one thing, we saw last week that the Russians began waging a second strategic air campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with a massive wave of cruise missiles. They also did this last year starting on October 10th. This means that more resources will be needed here to conduct this strategic air campaign. Secondly, it appears that the Russians are again trying to launch their own winter offensive, possibly in the area between Kupyansk and Svatove towards the Oskil River. You also need resources to fuel this offensive. However, these resources are currently still being used to repel the Ukrainian offensive. That’s why Putin is pushing to stop them so he can take the initiative himself. Ukraine, on the other hand, must be prepared for all eventualities.

Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner