Reisner’s view of the front: “Russia is pushing Ukraine more and more into the defensive”

Desperation is spreading in Ukraine: Russia is making new advances every day, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat in many places along the front line. “If the West doesn’t move, Ukraine will be pushed onto the defensive,” says Colonel Markus Reisner in an interview. But there are weapons that could help Ukraine.

ntv.de: Russia is currently increasingly going on the offensive along the front line and is continually taking over more Ukrainian land. Has the failed Ukrainian offensive now become completely defensive?

Markus Reisner: Russia is taking offensive advantage of the decline in Western aid. The Russians are trying to bring about appropriate decisions by gathering new troops at important hot spots on the front. This means not only the capture of towns, but also the closing of local pockets or attempted breakthroughs to the west. This can be seen particularly well in the east of Ukraine, in the area between Kupyansk and Swatove and near Bakhmut. What Ukraine had gained in terms of territory has been recaptured by the Russians, especially through the airborne troops that are deployed there. But also in Avdiivka, where fierce fighting is still raging, and to the south near Kherson. The bridgehead near Krynky on the southern side of the Dnipro, the Ukrainians are under strong pressure from the Russians. Now in the winter, before the Russian New Year, Russia is trying to make several advances, even if they are small, so that they can show something.

So is Ukraine losing land again that it had laboriously liberated in recent months?

Yes, absolutely. Especially in the three places where Ukraine tried to go on the offensive: in the Bakhmut area, north of Berdyansk and Mariupol and north of Melitopol. The Russians gained ground in all three areas. At Bakhmut, the Russians have advanced northwest and are in the process of taking the central supply route into the city, which has been hotly contested in the past. In the central area, the Russians have advanced several hundred meters near Uroschaine, north of Berdyansk and Mariupol. The Russians were also able to recapture land north of Melitopol and Tokmak. This is the area south of Robotyne, where the Ukrainian side managed to get a foothold in the defensive lines a few months ago. You could do that on one too Video recognized that was shared on Russian networks, where the Russians apparently managed not only to destroy a Leopard main battle tank, but also to take possession of the vehicle. The excerpt shows that the vehicle is south of Robotyne.

What does that mean?

The video is interesting because it is often said that despite attacks from Russian kamikaze drones or first-person view drones, the tanks are only damaged and need to be recovered. But in this video you can clearly see that the inside of the vehicle is almost completely burned out. That means it is no longer repairable. Russia has been successful with its combat techniques and tactics against these heavy vehicles from the West.

What tactics are these?

It’s a combination of several things. On the one hand, the use of mines, which not only damages these vehicles, but also destroys them. In addition, the use of attack helicopters from a safe distance. In addition, two additional capabilities have been added in recent months: firstly, the use of mobile anti-tank guided weapons squads that hit and destroy these tanks, even if the crews often survive because Western vehicles are built differently than Russian ones. The second is the use of first-person drones, which shows this well. According to the open source analysts at Oryx, 27 Leopard 2 A4 and A6 main battle tanks have already been damaged or destroyed and almost 70 Bradley and CV 90 infantry fighting vehicles. German Marders have also been destroyed. In total, there are 100 Western-made combat vehicles.

How can Ukraine counteract this?

Ukraine has multiple challenges. Three areas are particularly important: At a strategic level, it needs anti-aircraft systems before winter to defend itself against the expected Russian attacks with Iranian drones and cruise missiles. In the last 14 days there have been two attacks with a significant involvement of cruise missiles. This means that the Russians have begun their second strategic air campaign. It is also possible that new types of drones are now being used, not the old Shahed 136/138, but the new 238. They have a different drive that makes them much faster. This makes it more difficult for Ukraine to defend against these systems.

At the operational level, Ukraine faces significant challenges in getting its reserves to where they are needed. The Russian goal is to force Ukraine, like last year in the winter, to use its regionally available reserves along the entire front line. They also want to prevent additional forces from being made available that can be deployed in the spring. Ukraine must therefore try to keep these forces together over the winter so that it doesn’t end up without them next spring.

And the third area?

At the tactical level, the big challenge remains the use of first-person drones. At the Krynky bridgehead, the Russians can now attack Ukraine day and night with thermal imaging drones. The Ukrainians are also fighting back with first-person view drones, but the problem is that Russia can quantitatively supply its troops better than Ukraine. It simply produces more and faster.

We are approaching the end of the year. Several countries have promised Ukraine delivery of F-16 jets early next year. Could the fighter jets suddenly improve Ukraine’s situation?

Not suddenly. Together with the anti-aircraft systems, the jets are used to protect the depths of the country. Only then will Ukraine be able to start the military production it needs to supply the troops at the front. The second is to gain some kind of air sovereignty in the east for possibly another offensive, although there are currently no indicators of this. It will be interesting to see how Ukraine manages to deploy and split these aircraft across multiple locations in such a way that they don’t immediately fall prey to the Russians.

Is there anything the West could provide to help Ukraine out of its current situation in the short term?

Yes. These are primarily air-to-ground systems or surface-to-ground systems of medium to long range. These include, for example, the ATACMS surface-to-surface missile, which can be fired from HIMARS systems. Or the already announced delivery of the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), which will, however, be delayed until next year.

The German Taurus rockets would also be suitable for this, right?

Exactly, that is also the reason why this debate has been so intense in the last few weeks. With medium to long range, the Taurus air-ground system could attack Russian logistics and command structures. To achieve lasting effects, it is always better to attack in depth and hit the logistics hubs or command structures. This has a much greater impact than directly fighting troops on the front line itself.

What happens if the West doesn’t supply enough weapons?

If the West doesn’t move, then what Ukrainian officials say also applies: Ukraine will be pushed more and more onto the defensive. President Zelensky says that although they do not retreat, they must go on defense. There may be decisions made for the benefit of the soldiers. This may mean that Ukraine has to give up certain areas and withdraw, such as in Avdiivka.

Does it make military sense to continue holding the city, or are the motives political in nature, as was the case with Bakhmut a few months ago?

The situation is the same as back then in Bakhmut. Each side has tried to claim sovereignty of interpretation for itself. In the end, both sides suffered heavy casualties and the Russians captured Bakhmut on May 20. The same question now arises in Avdiivka: Wouldn’t it be better to leave the city? But any withdrawal of troops immediately means a defeat in the information space, which is interpreted by the Russians as a surrender. Nevertheless, it is possible that a so-called front straightening occurs. This means that you go back to stronger defensive lines in order to protect the soldiers and not lose them in a cauldron.

Would that be the right decision?

Ukraine is increasingly desperate and disillusioned. There is also increasing resignation on the western side of the global north. From a Ukrainian perspective, the decision to go on the defensive now is the right one. The next few months over the winter will therefore initially be characterized by the Ukrainian transition from the offensive to the defensive. Russia, on the other hand, is seizing the opportunity and now sees its opportunity again.

Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner