Reisner’s view of the front: “Russians and Ukrainians, like Hamas, are trying to use tunnels”

Russia’s armed forces launch an autumn offensive near Avdiivka and suffer massive losses right from the start. Colonel Markus Reisner sees this as proof that classic military maneuvers on the “glass battlefield” no longer work. Instead, both sides are trying to use tunnels to move forward, he says in a weekly interview with ntv.de. The military expert also explains why the deliveries of ATACMS missiles came at exactly the right time.

ntv.de: There are currently violent clashes at the front with great losses. In Avdiivka, Russia is said to have lost 900 soldiers and 150 armored vehicles within 24 hours. How come?

Markus Reisner: In the last few days it has been clear that the start of the obviously planned Russian autumn offensive has initially failed. The Russians suffered massive losses in ten days. They tried to encircle the city of Avdiivka in a pincer movement and lost up to 150, some observers even say up to 200, tanks and armored personnel carriers. The Ukrainians succeeded in this through the use of their minefields, artillery, but also through the use of Ukrainian anti-tank troops and first person view attack drones.

Is Avdiivka becoming the second Bakhmut?

Both sides are faced with the dilemma that classic maneuvering of large mechanized units has become almost impossible in recent months. The problem is that at any given time there are hundreds, even thousands, of drones in a very small space in the sky, each able to closely track and observe each other’s every move. If one of the two then tries to go on the offensive, it immediately comes under artillery fire or is attacked by kamikaze drones, so that the attack comes to a standstill with heavy losses. We saw this with the Ukrainians and are now seeing it again with the Russians’ attempt to go on the offensive themselves. The so-called “glass battlefield” allows both sides to react quickly and quickly. Both sides are therefore trying to change their tactics and combat techniques.

What does this new tactic look like?

On the one hand, they try to attack in very small groups along lines of trees and work their way meter by meter. On the other hand, they even try to advance underground through tunnels and attack from there. This tactic was already used in the First World War.

How the Hamas terrorists do it in the Gaza Strip?

Exactly, Hamas built this tunnel system to move under the Gaza fence and attack the Israelis. In Ukraine they are now trying to use tunnels.

Since when do Ukrainians and Russians also use tunnel systems to get around? This was rarely discussed in the past.

This started in the almost eight years from 2014 to 2022. After the attacks by the Russian side in the separatist areas, a kind of ceasefire came about. At this demarcation line, both sides fired at each other with artillery, but also fought each other underground at times. There is also a lot of coal and lignite mining in the east of Ukraine. There are various facilities there that date back to the mining and lignite mining era. The Russians have not only built defenses here, but have also apparently undermined Ukrainian positions in order to then surprise them. It is also to be expected that, as in the First World War, they will lay appropriate mines, blow them up and then make a breakthrough.

That means they didn’t build any new tunnels, but used the existing ones from the mining facilities?

Exactly, they use tunnels that already exist. One should not imagine that extensive digging was already taking place there, as we know from the time of the First World War. Instead, they use the existing underground facilities to gain an advantage. You could now see for the first time how both sides wanted to undermine the enemy directly at the front. However, there are indications that, for example, similar underground cellars in the industrial areas were used for the surprise attack during the battle for Mariupol.

Which side has an advantage when it comes to underground systems?

One cannot yet speak of a large-scale trend. There are also no comprehensive images needed to make an assessment. But what we have seen is that the Russians are obviously also launching underground attacks because they were so disastrously stuck in the Ukrainian defensive positions during their attacks on the surface.

So there is no “tunnel metro” yet, as is the case with Hamas in the Gaza Strip?

No, Hamas, but also Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, have built extensive tunnel systems over the years in order to reach Israeli territory underground on the one hand, and to store ammunition and weapons and remain undetected on the other.

Let’s take a look further south of the front line, on the Dnipro. There have recently been contradictory statements there: The ISW claims that the Ukrainians have achieved some kind of breakthrough. The Russians, on the other hand, claim that they have launched very successful counterattacks. What is true?

This must always be seen in the context of other sectors of the front: Russia tried to go on the offensive in Avdiivka and failed in the first phase. They are therefore forced to use operational reserves, i.e. reserves that are on site. This is exactly what Ukraine wants to prevent by trying to entice the Russians to divert these reserves elsewhere at a correspondingly high distance. We are now seeing this on the Dnipro, where Ukraine has crossed the river in several places. There are even reports that the Ukrainians managed to build a pontoon bridge.

What does the rest of the front look like at the moment? How do you generally assess the situation for Ukraine at the beginning of Rasputitsa?

Here you have to distinguish between three levels: tactical, operational and strategic. At the tactical level we see the Russian attacks near Avdiivka and in the central area, as well as the Ukrainian attempt to cross the Dnipro. There are also ongoing attacks in other known locations of the Ukrainian offensive, such as north of Mariupol. But so far neither side has managed to achieve an intended breakthrough, despite the most violent attacks in recent months. You can see that the Russians and the Ukrainians are both trying to do the same thing.

Namely?

Both try to force the other to use reserves and this is typical of such a war of attrition. It is interesting that Ukraine has announced that it will create five new brigades for the planned spring offensive. These are the 150th to 154th Mechanized Brigades. These require around 150 battle tanks, 300 infantry fighting vehicles and 200 artillery systems. These brigades are intended to give Ukraine the opportunity to regain its strength and go on the offensive itself. At the operational level, the attack on Russia’s helicopter forces in the central area using freshly delivered ATACMS from the USA is interesting. The Ukrainians have thus succeeded in weakening a key Russian capability. These attack helicopters were responsible for the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in the first phase because the Russians were able to fire helicopters at the Ukrainian columns from a safe distance. This strike with the ATACMS, which may also be nourished, will have a corresponding effect.

And at the strategic level?

It is interesting that we are seeing a decline in the use of cruise missiles and drones on both sides. Maybe to save them for attacks on critical infrastructure. Perhaps the forces will also be held back in case there are dynamic developments at the front. On the Ukrainian side, attacks with Storm Shadow and Scalp have almost completely stopped. That can have several reasons. The Russians claim to have shot down several fighter aircraft carrying these air-to-ground weapons in recent days. They also claim to be able to shoot down many of the rockets almost completely. In any case, it shows that the ATACMS have come at the right time because they can close the gap that may have arisen as a result.

Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner