Russia repels several attacks along the front line in the past 48 hours. According to Moscow, this was the start of the offensive – Ukraine denies. In fact, there are indications that Ukraine is deploying offensive brigades, explains Colonel Markus Reisner in an interview with ntv.de. The Leopard infantry fighting vehicle was spotted on drone footage for the first time. A Ukrainian strategy is also behind the attacks on Russian soil, even if Kiev does not want to openly admit this.
ntv.de: Ukraine is said to have launched several major attacks in Donetsk. According to Moscow, they were unsuccessful, but a Russian field commander contradicted this. What can you say about the fights so far?
Markus Reisner: Videos of the battles are already circulating, which allow an initial assessment. North of Mariupol in the central area there was a so-called front ledge. The Ukrainian side also managed to gain space there with intensive attacks. However, there was no real breakthrough, only gains of several hundred meters to two kilometers, then the Ukrainians met very heavy defensive fire from the Russian forces. They also suffered casualties.
Every Monday Colonel Markus Reisner answers questions about the current situation in Ukraine. He is a military historian, head of the research and development department at the Theresian Military Academy in Vienna and commander of the Austrian Guards Battalion. He has analyzed the war in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion.
So Moscow’s statements are correct?
We must not forget that we are again witnessing an information war in which both sides are trying to win the initiative. This is proven by the statements of the Russian side, which immediately dismissed these advances as a failure and claimed to have nipped this offensive in the bud.
So why does a Russian field commander promptly contradict the claims again? Isn’t that counterproductive?
We’ve seen that a number of times over the past few weeks and months. The best example of this is Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who repeatedly wanted to give the Ukrainians the impression with certain statements that his troops were weak, only to then put up strong resistance. There was a big difference between what was said and what happened. Specifically, we saw this in Bakhmut, when Prigozhin claimed he did not have enough weapons and ammunition, which, as it later turned out, was not true. At the same time, resistance among the commanders from the Russian side is also noticeable at the lowest level.
After today’s Ukrainian attacks, can it be assumed that the preparatory phase is over and that the Ukrainians are now beginning the decisive phase of the counteroffensive?
There are indications that the next phase has now begun. This can be seen from the fact that offensive brigades are apparently already deployed using American equipment, the so-called MRAPs (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle). It was always said: If we see the first Leopard and Challenger tanks or mine clearance tanks, then we can assume that it has really started now. And now we have the first pictures of it. We can therefore assume that the decisive phase of the counter-offensive has now begun. The Ukrainians deployed their forces along the entire front line about 48 hours ago. Smaller formations have attempted to advance at various points, apparently to see where there might be gaps in Russian defenses. These are probing raids to gather intelligence and tie down Russian forces along the front line. In context, it works like this: A military operation always begins with the so-called preparatory phase, which we have read about over and over again. This is followed by the decisive phase that has now been initiated.
How do you know which tanks are in service with which brigade?
Much became known through the leaks by the Americans. There is a detailed breakdown of what the structure is like in there. This was recently confirmed by a Ukrainian offensive promo video in which Leopard tanks could be seen alongside MRAPs. That was most likely the 33rd Brigade deployed for the offensive. The US MRAP mine vehicles speak for the 32nd Brigade, but they also use ex-Russian tanks. When the US Bradley infantry fighting vehicle shows up, you know immediately that it is the 47th Brigade, which is also an offensive brigade.
Russia claims that 20 Ukrainian tanks were destroyed in the attacks. Can you tell if the information is correct?
No. But one can assume that the Russians exaggerate by a factor of two or three. These are the experiences of the last few months. Some of the numbers were completely fictitious because, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, more HIMARS systems were destroyed than Ukraine even had. Both sides do that, by the way.
Let’s assume only half as many tanks were actually destroyed, so ten. Are these high losses for the Ukrainians in just one attack?
In order to be able to assess this, one must first understand the structure of a brigade. A brigade essentially consists of three so-called grenadier battalions. They consist of about 500 soldiers sitting on armored personnel carriers. One of the three is a tank battalion, which is special in that it has more heavy tanks but fewer soldiers than the other battalions. An artillery battalion is also included as an additional element. If the other two grenadiers attack with tanks, support them with artillery. A brigade consists of three grenadier battalions, one tank battalion and one artillery battalion. If ten tanks are now lost, then the tank battalion has lost one of its three companies. That means it’s not as operational as it was before, nor perfectly equipped, but it’s still combat-capable.
What about the attacks on the Russian border area around Belgorod? Are they also part of the counter-offensive?
Ukraine wants to deny any responsibility for the attacks. There are several reasons for this: On the one hand, you don’t want to offend potential supporters. Second, of course, one would like to suggest that there is an internal insurgency in Russia. In fact, one can assume that Ukraine is of course behind the attacks. This is nothing new. They did the same with the sinking of the Moskva, which has never been officially admitted to this day. Or more recently in the attacks in Moscow, in which the CIA believes the Ukrainians were responsible, or in the attack on the Crimean bridge last fall, in which the Ukrainian secret service has only now admitted its involvement. So there is no question of morality here. Ukraine wants to win the war and is doing everything that is necessary to do so.
What strategy are they pursuing with the attacks in Belgorod?
The big idea behind this is to extend the 1200-kilometer front line another 500 kilometers to the north and force the Russians to split their forces even more so that they can then push south.
Do the Russian partisan groups even have enough fighters to stand up to the Russian army?
You mean, are you capable of getting all the way to Moscow with one main battle tank and ten armored vehicles? Of course not, no.
Then they attack to die?
Yes, these are suicide missions. They serve to ease the pressure on Ukrainian soldiers in the south because the Russians have to send forces north. That is, they march into Russian territory, take a few pictures and shake up the world, and then try to break away again. Either they succeed or they get caught by the Russians. There are cases where they make it back across the border, but also those that didn’t make it.
Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner