Last week, Ukraine celebrated an important breakthrough with Robotyne in the south of the country. Since then, Russia has responded with heavy artillery fire and drone fire to prevent Ukraine from making further advances. “Ukraine needs to re-consolidate,” says Colonel Markus Reisner. But time is short: autumn is just around the corner and ushers in the mud season. However, that is no reason for the offensive to come to a complete standstill, said Reisner in a weekly interview with ntv.de.
ntv.de: The Ukrainian offensive has already been going on for 100 days – and according to US Chief of Staff Mark Milley, Ukraine has less than 45 days until the muddy period begins. Is it now entering the final spurt?
Markus Reisner is a colonel in the Austrian armed forces and analyzes the war situation in Ukraine every Monday for ntv.de.
(Photo: private)
Markus Reisner: In the last few days the fighting, especially in the central area, has eased up a bit. There are no longer constant attacks from the Ukrainian side with tanks and APCs trying to break through. Instead, the Ukrainian offensive is on operational hiatus. There are a few indicators of this: For example, Ukraine is currently trying to rotate troops, i.e. to bring new forces forward and bring back old, worn-out forces. You can see that from the fact that they try to provide new forces in the depths, but do not immediately bring them to the front.
Why not?
The forces at the front at Robotyne, for example, are under constant fire from the Russians. On the one hand with artillery, but above all through the use of kamikaze drones or first-person view drones. These attacks target the supply lines. By the way, this runs along the entire front, from Robotyne in the central area to the northeast near Bakhmut and also in the south near Kherson. The Ukrainians are also successfully using their drones.
It is said that the Russians are currently trying massively to cut off the Ukrainians’ reserves and supplies. Is this the answer to the Ukrainians’ successful advances?
Exactly. Ukraine is trying to expand on this success, its “foot in the door” as I described it last week. They are trying to squeeze another foot in south of Robotyne at Nowoprokopivka. The Russians, in turn, want to prevent that. On the one hand, by putting their own reserves in place. Parts of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division have already taken up positions north-east of Tokmak, and other heavy equipment from the 41st Army is on the run. On the other hand, they are trying, with artillery and long-range kamikaze drones, to interrupt Ukraine’s supply lines deep behind Robotyne, so that it is not able to continue to fuel the offensive leadership.
Are the Russians successful with this?
That cannot be said yet. In any case, there are indications that the Ukrainian offensive has stalled. You mentioned US Chief of Staff Mark Milley saying that Ukraine only has 30 to 45 days left to bring this offensive to fruition. The time factor changes to Ukraine’s disadvantage due to the onset of rains and siltation of the soil. On the other hand, there is a statement from Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov that the offensive will continue anyway. Ukraine will continue to attack even in bad weather, even if that means they can only attack in small groups. It is also interesting that the USA is now seriously thinking about supplying Ukraine with ATACAMS surface-to-surface missiles. This is a clear indication that attempts are being made to support Ukraine with effective long-range weapon systems and to increase pressure on the Russians.
Hearing that the offensive has stalled comes as a surprise, as both the Ukrainian side and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have repeatedly emphasized in recent days that there is a lot of movement and progress.
That’s correct. I think this is above all an attempt to keep the morale of the soldiers high and to show that things are moving forward. However, if you look at the images from the battlefield, there is no significant improvement compared to last week. It can be seen that the Ukrainian soldiers have partially taken over the bases of the Russian side and are trying to consolidate and carry out rotations under constant fire from the Russian side. The significant breach through the battlefield outpost line and the collapse of the first line of defense about ten days ago has not continued. Progress is still slow, but only a few hundred meters.
That is, the Ukrainian troops are still between the first and second lines of defense?
Yes, Ukraine is now on the first line of defense, trying to roughly break through between Robotyne and Werbowe. From the dozens of images and videos coming in every day, we see a variety of battles at the lowest tactical level and that Ukraine is trying to consolidate but is not yet able to advance further.
What are the chances that Ukraine will be able to break through the second and third lines of defense south of Robotyne and north of Tokmak before the onset of the muddy period?
That depends entirely on the extent to which Ukraine is able to add new forces and exert new pressure. In this context, statements from President Zelenskyj and US Chief of Staff Milley are also interesting, saying that this war is a long one and that they do not want to give the offensive an end point, but rather continue even when the muddy period begins and into the winter into it.
As soon as Rasputiza, the mud season, sets in, the tanks can no longer make good progress. How must the Ukrainians change their military tactics to keep the offensive going?
Ukraine has shown several times in the last 100 days that it is capable of adapting. The most significant thing so far was when they moved from a massive mechanized attack to using small assault groups. You can see that again now: Ukraine is trying to hold down the enemy by supporting artillery, but also individual battle tanks, and then advance in small groups along the rows of trees and windbreak belts. This is also possible if the weather conditions change and more and more mud is created. The problem is that it is very slow and very costly because the Ukrainians are so relatively unprotected compared to an armored vehicle.
From a military perspective, what would make sense for Ukraine now in the next few weeks until the muddy period begins?
The Ukrainians must try to further weaken the enemy’s defensive positions. It is interesting that Ukraine is now using the HIMARS system, which is actually used for attacks deep in the enemy’s depths, directly at the front. They repeatedly attack tactical targets, i.e. bases on the main line of defense. Ukraine is trying to weaken its defense lines so that its own forces are able to advance further after consolidation.
What about the rest of the front?
South of Bakhmut, Ukraine is trying to make massive advances towards the east. There is an important railway line that leads south. This is a natural terrain obstacle that the Ukrainian side is trying to control. North of there, near Kupyansk, the Russians are still trying to advance westward, but haven’t really been able to gain a foothold. A surprising advance on Opytne was made near Donetsk. In the southwest near Cherson, the Ukrainians continue to try to distract Russian air forces by landing, so that they cannot be deployed in the central area. In this context, Ukrainian special forces have even landed in Crimea and that it is now said to have succeeded in recapturing the “Tavrida” and “Petro Hodovalets” drilling platforms in the Black Sea.
Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner