In Ukraine, the Russians continue to put great pressure on the defenders’ positions. The muddy season will soon bring a breather, as Colonel Reisner from the Austrian Armed Forces says in an interview with ntv.de. After that, the Russians are likely to attack more intensively again.
ntv.de: Orthodox Easter is only on May 5th, but was there still a little more peace and quiet over the holiday weekend than usual?
Markus Reisner: No, on the contrary. We have again seen a massive Russian air attack, particularly on energy supplies. The culmination phase of Russia’s second winter offensive continues, with massive attacks in recent days. Ukraine, for its part, is trying to influence Russia using drones. So there was no sign of an Easter peace.
The Ukrainians are working hard to expand the second line of defense near Avdiivka. What does it look like there? Have the Russians advanced further?
If you look at the last 48 hours, you can see massive Russian attacks again. Apparently the Russians are convinced that they can now achieve a breakthrough. The Ukrainians are still holding them up at a delaying position west of Avdiivka, where the Russians have overcome the first line of defense. There is still fierce fighting over this delay position. The situation is reminiscent of the period before Ukraine’s spring and summer offensive last year. The Ukrainians had great problems breaking through the Russian positions. We are now observing exactly the same thing in reverse.
Does that mean the Russians are still finding it very difficult to advance at all?
Exactly. However, the Russians have two advantages. When it comes to artillery, they are clearly superior. According to General Syrskyj, the ratio is now 1:6. This means that for every Ukrainian grenade there are six Russian ones. The second is the use of the FAB gliding bombs. He’s wearing down the Ukrainian positions. The commander-in-chief, General Syrskyj, is trying to allocate resources to the individual sectors of the front. So far it’s working well, but the question is for how long.
Why don’t the Ukrainians use these glide bombs?
They do not have comparable systems in sufficient quantities. They have long called for the delivery of surface-to-surface or air-to-surface systems, such as the US-made ATACMS missiles or JDAM precision bombs. They have a limited number of Scalp and Storm Shadow cruise missiles. But not in the quantities that Russia can still produce. They could defend themselves with anti-aircraft defense, but this is urgently needed to protect the cities and is therefore missing at the front. According to President Zelensky, five to seven more Patriot systems are needed. In this context, drastic statements must also be understood, such as those made by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, who recently said: “Give us these damn Patriots.”
So there is still no sign of the hundreds of thousands of artillery shells that European countries wanted to purchase on the Czech Republic’s initiative?
No, that takes time. What is interesting, however, is that other countries receive weapons that are withheld from Ukraine. Poland will receive more than 800 cruise missiles, Israel will receive another 1,800 precision bombs and possibly even 50 F-15 fighter jets from the USA.
Poland gets weapons, but Ukraine doesn’t. What is that supposed to mean? Is it possible that Ukraine is being left to starve with its outstretched arm?
First of all, it is crucial that NATO prioritizes the countries that are members of the alliance. These are Poland and also the Baltic states, but not Ukraine. Here we see the front line of the new Cold War, Cold War 2.0. This goes from the Arctic through the Baltics through East Central Europe to the Bosporus into the Levant. New military arrangements are being created along this line to deter Russia. Poland is now a frontline state, just like the Federal Republic of Germany used to be. Many of these measures are aimed at establishing a conventional second-strike but also deterrent capability against a Russian attack. You show the aggressor that you are not prepared to accept an attack on your own territory.
Will Ukraine be dropped?
It’s too early to say that. We see that Western governments remain determined to help Ukraine, despite certain signs of fatigue. Strengthening NATO and helping Ukraine are not contradictory. On the contrary, they pursue the same goal. Russia should not get away with its attack, which violates international law, and under no circumstances should it develop an appetite for more.
Ukraine has significantly ramped up its drone production, some of which can fly up to 1,000 kilometers. What can the drones achieve? Can they replace missing rockets and cruise missiles?
These drones are extremely useful on a tactical level at the moment, but of course not what you need for a long-lasting fight. The long-range drones, on the other hand, are used for attacks on Russian soil. This has three effects. On the one hand, Ukraine reminds the Russian population that the war is not only taking place in another country, but also directly affects them. In addition, the Russians are forced to use anti-aircraft defenses in their own country, which may then be missing at the front. This would favor the planned use of F-16s. The effect itself should not be underestimated. When drones hit refineries, production collapses. It is assumed that this has already fallen by 10 to 15 percent. That is quite significant.
A new conscription begins in Russia on April 1st. Thanks to such reserves, Russia manages to compensate for the high losses. The recruits are promised that they will not be deployed to Ukraine. Do you believe that?
No, I do not think so. There are enough examples of Russian soldiers being drafted under false promises. At the latest after the end of compulsory military service, the soldiers can be transferred to contractual relationships and from that moment on they can be deployed anywhere. The soldier who thought he had a quiet job in the stage then finds himself on the front line in Avdiivka. In this way, Russia can continually generate new contracts. It is estimated that there are now two and a half times as many soldiers deployed in Ukraine as there were when the invasion began two years ago. Instead of 190,000 men, there should now be 500,000 to 550,000.
The Russians’ second winter offensive is currently culminating, and a spring offensive is scheduled to follow in the spring. In between lies the Rasputiza mud period. When can this be expected?
We are already seeing that winter is turning into the muddy season. The thawing ground becomes soft, making it impossible for heavy vehicles to maneuver. This phase will last several weeks, depending on the weather. Then the attacks begin again. The massive Russian attacks at Tonenke and Robotyne are a foretaste of what is to come in the spring and summer. The muddy period is a breather for Ukraine. But this only applies to troops and troop movements on the ground. Tactical drone combat and strategic air warfare, however, will continue unabated.
The Russians are also massively attacking the energy supply – why now and not in the winter? Now the consequences are less dramatic because with the end of winter there is no longer a need to heat as much.
This is also being discussed on Russian social networks. There are several attempted explanations. It could be that the Russians had to save up rockets and bombs in order to attack so massively and not give the Ukrainians the opportunity to restore supplies in the meantime. It is also suspected that the many family relationships between Ukrainians and Russians could play a role. Accordingly, the Russians’ goal would be not to increase the pressure too much so that the Ukrainians might turn against their own government. But that seems more like wishful thinking to me. One reason could also be that the Russians are having problems clarifying the now highly decentralized energy supply. This can lead to time delays. The fact is that the attacks would have had a much more devastating impact if they had been carried out in winter. But that wasn’t the case.
Easter is the festival of hope. What gives you hope in this phase of the war?
To be completely honest: not much. We are now in the third year of the war and we see that the deaths continue on both sides. We also see that the conflict in Ukraine is just one of many conflicts taking place on a global scale. The impression is that the world is falling apart. On the other hand, it remains remarkable that Ukraine manages to hold out even in the third year of the war. Nobody expected that. The big question is whether Ukraine will get the resources it needs in this war of attrition. We see that Russia is slowly regaining momentum. We have to assume that Russia will go on the offensive again. That gives little hope, and it is disillusioning to realize that this war is entering the next round.
Volker Petersen spoke to Markus Reisner