Six months ago, the Supreme Court overturned the national right to abortion. The procedure is now banned in around a third of the states. Politically, however, the verdict was a boomerang for the conservatives.
Anti-abortion protesters demonstrated outside a Michigan clinic last November. Shortly thereafter, however, the politically contested member state clearly voted for liberal regulations on abortion.
On June 24, Republicans reaped the rewards of decades of political struggle. After around 50 years, the American Supreme Court revised its leading judgment “Roe v. Wade” in 1973, which legalized abortions in the United States up to about 24 weeks of pregnancy. Now the conservative majority of judges has changed this case law: The Supreme Court ruled that the constitution grants neither an explicit nor an implicit right to an abortion.
Republican Party leaders exulted, “I applaud this historic verdict that will save countless innocent lives.” explained Kevin McCarthy, the Conservative minority leader in the House of Representatives. It is a victory for the weakest in society. Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell spoke of a “brave and correct” decision.
He had personally laid the foundation for this with a tough power politics. In 2016, as the majority leader, McConnell refused to fill a vacant Supreme Court judge’s seat with Barack Obama, citing the upcoming elections, while in 2020 he waved Donald Trump’s nominee through just days before the ballot. In doing so, he enabled Trump to fill three vacancies on the Supreme Court with conservative judges in one term.
Pills provide a workaround
Half a year later, however, McConnell’s ruthless power play and June verdict are proving to be an own goal on multiple levels. The number of abortions has fallen, but by no means dramatically. In the first two months after the decision, 6 percent or around 10,000 people across the country less legal abortions performed.
The procedure is still perfectly legal in about half of the states. Women in conservative-dominated regions who can afford it simply have to travel for treatment. As a result, while the number of abortions in restrictive states fell by 22,000, they rose by 12,000 in liberal states. Illinois, which is surrounded by conservative states, even recorded an increase of almost 50 percent.
However, it is not possible to say with certainty whether the number of abortions in states with bans has actually fallen. Some women who cannot afford to travel to a clinic for treatment may turn to abortion pills. Aid Access, America’s largest provider of mail-order pills, saw demand double after the ruling. In July and August, the organization sent out 3,000 more pills than before.
Among other places in Texas anti-abortion advocates are preparing laws, designed to restrict access to these tablets. Ultimately, this would mean that pregnant women in particular from poor backgrounds would be forced to carry an unwanted child. Professor Diana Greene Foster from the University of California therefore already forecast in June: «Wealthier American women will continue to have abortions. Poorer ones will have children at the wrong time.”
In addition, the states with the strictest abortion bans are also those parts of the country with the poorest access to health care and, consequently, the highest mortality rates for pregnant women and children are.
Unexpected resistance in conservative states
After six months, however, the database is still too sparse for a conclusive analysis. Possible effects on birth rates, for example, will only become apparent after nine months. But the fate of individuals can also indicate possible trends. For example, the diabetic Kristen Petranek decided against having another child after her second miscarriage. The fear that she would not receive the necessary medical treatment in the event of complications was too great. For her it was clear: «I will not expose myself to this situation if I am not convinced that I will come out of it in one piece», she told radio station NPR. Many women confronting a difficult pregnancy may have similar thoughts.
But men also seem to be more concerned. According to reports from urologists in conservative states stop many more mento prevent unwanted pregnancy in their partners.
What abortion opponents also underestimated: In many conservative and politically moderate states, where local governments and parliaments wanted to enact abortion bans after June 24, this mobilized resistance on a broad front. The best example is the popular initiative in Kansas, a rural state in the Midwest. In August voted 59 percent of citizens against an amendment that would have undermined the right to abortion enshrined in the state constitution. In the midterm elections in November, the abortion opponents also lost votes in Kentucky, Montana and Michigan, among others.
The voting results make it clear: After the end of «Roe v. Wade,” the abortion issue is dividing Republican voters while mobilizing Democrats. For years, polls have shown that only around a third of Americans support restrictive abortion regulations. Six months after the verdict, abortions are legal “Only” illegal or severely restricted in 14 member states. In 10 others, courts have currently blocked the enforcement of bans – mostly due to the constitutions of the individual states.
A permanent dilemma
Due to the successes, the advocates of abortion rights are striving for further referendums in around 10 states on. To counteract this, however, the Republicans are trying to Ohioto make such initiatives more difficult. In the future, 60 percent instead of the previous 50 percent of the votes should be necessary for the adoption of a constitutional amendment. Whether this is a wise tactic remains to be seen. It could also boost Democratic pledges to legislate a national abortion right in Washington if the party wins majorities in favor.
The midterm elections to Congress in November also showed how great the burden of the abortion question is. Especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan or Arizona, the issue played into the hands of the Democrats in the race for governor and Senate seats. Despite high inflation of over 7 percent, the left was able to increase its majority in the Senate by one seat and only narrowly lost the House of Representatives.
The uncomfortable question will be for Republicans as well remain a problem in the next presidential election. The candidates will have to position themselves: Do they stand for a national ban on abortion, as conservative activists are demanding? Do you want to leave the question to the states? Or could they settle for a compromise of a 15-week ban, as suggested by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham? A hard line could be an advantage in the Republican primary, but it could spell defeat in the November 2024 presidential election.
The abortion issue has become a divisive issue for Republicans. They will probably only find a way out of the dilemma when they themselves have agreed on a position that seems acceptable to a majority of Americans.