Sunday, December 26th, 2021
Republicans need success
It won’t work without Trump in 2022 either
Since Twitter shut down his account, things seem to have calmed down around the former US president. But for a success in next year’s congressional elections, Republicans still need Trump. His support means great risks for the candidates.
The year 2021 ends for Joe Biden, to say the least, not very good. A massive resurgence in corona infections, high inflation, a possible fatal blow for his ambitious social and climate protection package and correspondingly poor poll numbers plague the US president. The opposition Republicans are gleeful – and an optimistic view of the new year: In the congressional mid-term elections in November 2022, ex-President Donald Trump’s party has a good chance of winning back the majority in the House and Senate.
But the conservatives too are faced with difficult decisions. The most important one is the question of how to deal with Trump: The right-wing populist, who was voted out in November 2020, left the White House with disgrace and shame after the Capitol storm on January 6th. But in the months that followed, the 75-year-old, still extremely popular and sometimes revered among the conservative base, was able to consolidate his power over the party again. There is now a consensus that anyone who wants to be politically successful with the Republicans needs the blessing of Trump, who resides like a monarch in his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
Trump’s support as a major risk
“Despite losing his social media bullhorn, his support for candidates still mobilizes grassroots supporters, drives up campaign funds and, in some cases, can knock rivals out of the way,” said policy advisor Tommy Goodwin. However, a public statement of support by the highly controversial ex-president also harbors risks. Political scientist Sam Nelson says it is valuable in the Republican primaries, but it can be a hindrance to the actual election. “It motivates Democrats to vote to vote against the Trump-backed candidate.”
In the gubernatorial election in Virginia in early November, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin, who carefully kept Trump at a distance during the election campaign, achieved a spectacular victory. He did significantly better than Trump in the 2020 presidential election in the state, especially in the suburbs, with independent voters and women. The congressional midterm elections next fall, the so-called midterms, could also be decided in the suburbs, where Trump is much less popular than in rural areas.
For many Republican strategists, the formula for victory is therefore: Go for a policy in the style of Trump, but keep the ex-president himself out as far as possible without annoying him. So Trumpism without Trump. Easier said than done, however. The real estate mogul, decried as a narcissist and flirting with a renewed presidential candidacy in 2024, is known to appreciate little if he is not in the center of attention.
Trump is “like a crying kid in the aisle for candy”
“Donald Trump is where he wants to be – in the center of attention,” says communication scientist Peter Loge. “He’s like a crying kid in the candy aisle of a packed grocery store asking for more lemonade while tossing candy bars at other kids.” It is just “difficult to imagine that he takes a back seat so that others have a place in the limelight”.
Especially since Trump is still worried about his clear electoral defeat against Biden. He regularly spreads the often refuted claim that he was deprived of a second term through massive electoral fraud. For the first anniversary of the storming of the Capitol on January 6th, during which hundreds of his supporters wanted to prevent Biden’s election victory from being certified, he has announced a press conference that will revolve around his allegations of fraud.
Republicans fear this fixation on the 2020 elections could harm the party. “We have to talk about the future, not the past,” said powerful Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell recently. The outcome of the 2022 elections could help determine whether – and if so, to what extent – Trump is the future of the Republicans. And whether the ex-president is really trying to retake the White House in 2024.