Just missed on Wednesday, a jump in the Paris Stock Exchange could occur thanks to the rise of Wall Street, which had experienced its worst session on Tuesday in more than two years. The trend could also benefit from the announcement of the lifting of containment measures in Chengdu, one of China’s main cities, on Thursday. The central question, however, remains the extent of the next rate hike by the US Federal Reserve: 75 or 100 basis points.
After inflation figures that show no signs of easing, investors will be looking this afternoon at the statistics for retail sales in the United States in August. It could give a broader view of the impact of soaring prices on consumption, before tomorrow’s survey by the University of Michigan on consumer confidence.
The consumer resists
The resilience of the American consumer in this period of declining disposable income has not been denied this year despite the increase in energy and food prices. Retail sales rose every month except for a 0.1% decline in May and stagnation in July. The consensus formed by Bloomberg expects a contraction of 0.1% in retail sales as a whole and a stabilization excluding autos.
The Federal Reserve will not fail to analyze these figures to refine its monetary decision next Wednesday. The vast majority of economists are counting on a rise of 75 basis points, which would bring the Fed funds rate to 3%-3.25%. The probability of a tightening of one percentage point is estimated at 30% by the market, according to calculations by CME Group.
Stellantis will generate electricity
On the bond market, the yield on the US 2-year bond, sensitive to expectations on the evolution of short-term rates, reached 3.79% this week, or 35 basis points above that of the maturity at 30 years. The inversion of the curve is thus at its highest level since the beginning of the 2000s. This type of reversal is generally considered to be a harbinger of an upcoming recession.
Stellantis is considering “significant” investments to produce energy for its European facilities, as part of its response to a possible cut in Russian gas supplies, announced Carlos Tavares, the automaker’s chief executive.
Carmat has confirmed that it is preparing to resume the implantations of its Aeson artificial heart in October, subject to obtaining the necessary authorizations.
Among analyst ratings, Morgan Stanley downgraded BNP Paribas from “overweight” to “line weight”.