After two bloody weeks of trading, the overall market can shake off the negative news from China for the time being. In the slipstream of Bitcoin (BTC), a clear majority of the top 100 Altcoins are gaining in value this week.
For the time being, Bitcoin seems to have found new ground in the USD 40,000 area. The positive development over the weekend also ensures respectable price gains for the vast majority of the top 100 Altcoins. The performance of the classic stock market in the coming weeks of trading is decisive for the development of the crypto market. If the Nasdaq extends its correction sustainably, this could also burden the entire crypto market.
Best price development among the top 10 altcoins:
Terra’s price development can still be clearly described as bullish this week. After the LUNA course recorded the largest price gain among the top 10 altcoins in the previous week, Terra is moving further north this week as well. The successful implementation of the Col update is currently generating a great deal of interest in the Terra ecosystem. If the LUNA rate can stabilize above the previous all-time high of 45.02 USD, prices are likely to continue to rise in the short and medium term.
Bullish variant (Terra)
The LUNA rate has only known one direction in the last few weeks of trading. If there is a sustained breakout above the all-time high at USD 45.02, the next target price at USD 56.03 comes into focus. The Fibonacci extension of 127 runs here. If this projection target is broken, Terra should immediately march to the 138 Fibonacci extension at USD 60.57. First investors should take profits here. If the overall market continues to be friendly and Bitcoin can sustainably leave the psychological mark of USD 50,000 behind, a price increase up to the 161 Fibonacci extension at USD 70.05 is also conceivable in the medium term.
Based on the current LUNA rate, this is a rate potential of around 56 percentage points. If the bulls can pulverize this resistance level as well, the 200 Fibonacci extension of the current trend movement at USD 85.52 comes into focus. If Bitcoin rises back to its all-time high and pulls the overall market up with it, Terra could even target the 261 Fibonacci extension at USD 110.55 by the end of the year. A stabilization above USD 100 could even flush the LUNA rate towards USD 151.05 in the long term. The 361 Fibonacci extension is an important overarching price target.
Basic variant (Terra)
On the other hand, if the LUNA rate falls below the important support at USD 41.41 and also gives up USD 40.24, a retest of the turquoise support zone is likely. The 78 Fibonacci retracement and the EMA20 (red) can be found here. If the bears manage to break this support, consolidation will gain momentum. A first important target can be found in the USD 32.03 area. In addition to the EMA50 (orange), there is also relevant horizontal support here. Again, increased resistance from the cops is to be expected. A dynamic undershoot brings the next relevant support from the supertrend and 61s Fibonacci retracement into focus. Both can be found at the top of the blue support zone. If this support is also broken, the next bearish price target is activated at USD 24.77.
The bulls have recently been able to defend this price mark several times on a daily closing basis. Just below that, at USD 23.09, there is also the low of September 7th of this year. Should the bears, contrary to expectations, also be able to undercut this strong support, Terra should fall back into the orange support area around the 38 Fibonacci retracement. The EMA200 (blue) also runs in this zone. Abandoning this support zone activates the maximum bearish price target at USD 17.49. On the one hand the current upward rally started here, on the other hand the MA200 (green) also runs here. Only when the overall market corrects more clearly and Bitcoin corrects back to USD 30,000 is a medium-term retest of the 23 Fibonacci retracement at USD 14.15 conceivable. Investors continue to prefer the bullish scenario and use setbacks for new long entries.
Both the RSI and the MACD indicator continue to show buy signals. However, the divergence mentioned last is still active. The fact that the RSI indicator was able to break out back above 55 in the last few days shows, however, that the price strength of Terra should be sustainable.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins:
As mentioned in the previous week’s analysis, Cardano is not gaining momentum. In contrast to all other top 10 altcoins, the ADA rate shows a discount of more than two percentage points on a weekly basis. Cardano is trading further above the support area between USD 1.90 and USD 2.02, but at the daily closing price it could not jump back above the resistance at USD 2.30. Cardano is currently trading again in the area of the first support at USD 2.16 and thus still below the EMA20 (red) and the EMA50 (orange).
Bullish variant (Cardano)
The cross resistance from EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange) in the area of 2.24 USD could not be recaptured in the last four trading days. Only when the bulls manage to overcome USD 2.24 and subsequently also the weekly high of USD 2.30 will an increase back to USD 2.46 be planned. A stabilization above the history high at USD 2.46 makes a march into the red resistance area between USD 2.56 and USD 2.73 likely. The upper Bollinger band runs at USD 2.56 and the supertrend at USD 2.61. There is also a strong horizontal resistance level at USD 2.70. If the bulls manage to break through this resistance, the USD 2.86 mark will become the target. The Fibonacci extension of 127 runs here.
A breakout above it brightens the chart image and moves the 138 Fibonacci extension at USD 3.02 into focus. If the ADA rate stabilizes above USD 3.02 and also surmounts the all-time high at USD 3.10, the next price target is activated at USD 3.37. The projection target can be found here in the form of the 161 Fibonacci extension. If Cardano can break out of this resistance level in the medium term, the bulls will want to target the 200 Fibonacci extension at USD 3.92. In the medium term, a march through to the overarching price target of USD 4.83 would then be conceivable. A breakout above the psychological level of USD 5.00 in the coming trading months could even lead the ADA rate to the 361 Fibonacci extension at USD 6.29. The maximum target price for Cardano can still be seen at 7.75 USD. The 461 Fibonacci extension of the higher-level price movement runs here.
Basic variant (Cardano)
The ADA price failed to overcome the cross resistance at USD 2.24 several times. The bears are currently pushing the price back towards USD 2.16. A relapse below this support makes a sell-off into the blue support area increasingly likely. If Cardano slips below the weekly low at USD 2.03, the trend low at USD 1.90 comes into view again. If the ADA price does not stabilize here and thus undercuts the 61st Fibonacci retracement, the correction extends to at least USD 1.82. Below this price mark there would initially be space to USD 1.74. Here you can find the 50s Fibonacci retracement of the current price movement. A price slide of up to USD 1.67 must then be planned for. The moving support lines EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) can be found here.
Therefore, it is initially necessary to plan with increased resistance from the buyer camp. A task of this support area clouded the chart image significantly. In a first step, the ADA rate should correct to the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 1.56. One last chance to avert the sell-off is at USD 1.48, the breakout level of August 9, 2021. Should the bears also succeed in undercutting this level, the 23 Fibonacci retracement at USD 1.34 will come into focus. An overall market weakness would have far-reaching consequences for Cardano. In perspective, Cardano could then fall back into the bearish target range between USD 1.10 and USD 1.00. Investors can try long entries between USD 2.02 and USD 1.90, but should hedge these below USD 1.66.
The RSI remains weak and threatens to break out of the neutral zone to the south again if the price weakens. Even the MACD indicator cannot sustainably confirm the slight buy signal from the previous week. The MACD is also threatening to generate a new sell signal again. A sustained price correction should already lead to fresh sell signals in the weekly chart in the next trading week.
Top 10 stability
Bitcoin successfully defended the $ 40,000 support, rising a whopping 15 percent north in the past four days of trading. On a weekly basis, the largest cryptocurrency shows a price increase of 12 percentage points. With the exception of Cardano (ADA), which is falling by one percentage point, all of the top 10 Altcoins increase in value, some significantly. As in the previous week, the list is led by Terra (LUNA) with 35 percent increase in value, followed by Solana (SOL) with 28 percent and the Binance Coin (BNB) with 23 percent price increase. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) can also convince with a 9 percent price increase. The ranking of the ten largest cryptocurrencies shows two changes in position this week. Solana overtakes Ripple again and jumps to fifth. Terra (LUNA) is also gaining ground and overtakes Avalanche (AVAX) to ninth place.
Winner and Loser of the Week
Driven by the strength of the crypto key currency Bitcoin, many top 100 Altcoins can shake off the recent price weakness and mostly increase in value. Around half of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies show a double-digit price increase. The winners list is led by the NFT game Axie Infinity (AXS), which has jumped to a new all-time high with a price increase of 139 percent. The crypto veteran OMG Network (OMG) can also convince with a price increase of 88 percent.
Olympus (OHM) and Qtum (QTUM) are also bullish and are each increasing by around 50 percentage points to the north. The short list of weekly losers is again led by the Asian crypto exchange Huobi, whose Huobi Token (HT) is losing around 10 percentage points in value. The XDC Network (XDC) is also weak with a 9 percent price decline. The third underperformer is IOST (IOST) with an 8 percent course correction. The market thus seems to have already processed the negative news of the last few weeks and is ringing in the strongest season from a statistical point of view right on time for the start of the quarter.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.86 euros.