In its latest estimate, INSEE highlights in particular the sharp rise in energy and food prices.
On the eve of the summer holidays, inflation remains crushing. In its latest publication, this Thursday morning, INSEE returned to the evolution of the consumer price index in recent weeks. In June, inflation accelerated to 5.8% year on year, according to national statisticians.
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In its latest economic report, published last week, the institute forecast inflation at 5.9% this month. The first estimate is therefore slightly lower. In May, consumer prices had already peaked at 5.2%, “after 4.8% in April“, according to national statisticians. This is the highest level since the 1980s.
In detail, this month, the inflation inflation is above all due to “an acceleration in energy and food prices“, specifies the note. The figures are striking: over one year, energy prices have experienced their strongest rise in decades and jumped 33.1%, driven by the explosion in prices at the pump. Food prices followed the same path, increasing by 5.7% over one year, the highest since July 2008: fresh products saw their price tag climb by 6.2%, against 5.7% for other food products.
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Similarly, manufactured products increased by 2.6% over one year, a rate admittedly slightly less marked than in May, thanks to the sales which brought prices down. However, the current rate remains at its highest since 1992. Finally, inflation affecting the prices of services is slowing down, but it remains, at 3.2% over one year, the highest since the end of 2002.
Acceleration expected at the start of the school year before stabilization
The overall picture is therefore mixed. Contrary to the start of the year, price increases are no longer contained in energy but are spreading widely across the various sectors of the economy, including food, services and manufactured goods. Enough to push consumers to hoard when they can and to tighten their belts: on Wednesday, another INSEE publication reported that household confidence was down this month, “for the sixth consecutive month“, reaching its lowest level since July 2013. Worried, they then limit their spending.
The situation should not improve for several months: INSEE expects inflation to accelerate tojust under 7% in September“, before stabilizing by the end of the year, between 6.5% and 7%. On average, the institute expects a rate of 5.5% for 2022, against 5.6% according to the Banque de France. Although this is one of the lowest rates in the European Union, as the government regularly points out, it remains crushing for households.
The National Assembly will soon consider a new set of actions aimed at safeguarding purchasing power, but uncertainty remains as to the ability of the political groups to agree on the measures to be adopted. APL, social minima, pensions, minimum wage, price freeze, lower taxes, food vouchers… The subjects to be discussed will be numerous, the sums at stake substantial, leading, without a doubt, to heated debates in the hemicycle.