The decision in Washington to export US nuclear expertise in submarine propulsion to Australia is bad news from a proliferation perspective. The new “Aukus” alliance (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) presented on Wednesday September 15 does not speak of atomic weapons – the future Australian submersibles in service from 2040 will carry conventional Tomahawk missiles, he said. it was announced. But this sale will make emerge in the Indo-Pacific zone the seventh player in the world with attack submarines of this type – the on-board nuclear boilers provide considerable autonomy, discretion and extension to warships. In addition, the contract could cover technologies using highly enriched uranium.
In nuclear matters, “The Europeans and France are putting a lot of energy on Iran, they will have to invest in the major and increasingly complex subject of proliferation in the Indo-Pacific zone”, says Antoine Bondaz of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) in Paris. “The area includes proliferating states like North Korea, members of the Non-Proliferation Treaty [nucléaire, TNP] like China, others who are not signatories like India and Pakistan, but also countries where there are debates on the acquisition of nuclear weapons like South Korea ”. For Seoul, which is developing a submarine launcher and long-range missiles, “It is obvious that the question arises”, continues Mr. Bondaz: “The question is first and foremost that of propulsion, but in this country, for ten years, the population has been in favor of nuclearization, either by reintroducing American weapons, or by developing national capacities”.
“The start of a new cycle” in the region
For this specialist, this transfer of technologies in one of the most sensitive fields which is undoubtedly marks “The start of a new cycle” In the region. The risk is therefore first of all that other States will be drawn into wanting to acquire nuclear submarines, Japan and South Korea in particular. “How could the United States deny this capability to other of its allies?” “, asks Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
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