Risky, unbelievable, too late: Experts are tearing Musk’s robotaxi vision apart

Risky, unbelievable, too late
Experts are tearing Musk’s robotaxi vision apart

By Juliane Kipper
October 11, 2024, 12:12 p.m

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Tesla boss Elon Musk presents a new robotaxi concept. Experts consider the plans to be risky and the price promises questionable. Industry expert Schwope considers it unlikely that autonomous driving with the Cybercab will become a reality in the medium term.

A two-seater coupe with wing doors, without a steering wheel or pedals: This is what the robotaxi from Tesla is supposed to look like, which company boss Elon Musk presented to analysts, donors and fans the evening before in the Warner Brothers film studios near Los Angeles. Production is expected to begin in 2026 and the vehicles will cost less than $30,000, Musk said. As expected, the Tesla boss only answered vaguely when the cars should come onto the market.

According to industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, the announcement is not only “very thin”, but also “full of risks”. “I can’t imagine that investors have much hope for this,” says Dudenhöffer ntv.de. The only thing that caused a stir was the price of $30,000, but that wasn’t very credible. Frank Schwope from the Fachhochschule des Mittelstands in Hanover (FHM) also agrees with this. The long-time expert in the German automotive industry estimates that the price after taxes and certain equipment will be over 40,000 US dollars.

Unlike other car manufacturers, Tesla relies solely on cameras for “Full Self Driving” and does not use other sensors such as radar or lidar. Added to this is artificial intelligence. This approach is cheaper and simpler than that of other car manufacturers who use a large number of systems in parallel. Dudenhöffer thinks this is dangerous. Tesla’s autopilot has already shown how weak cameras are as sensors in autonomous driving. “Slight weather influences, for example, can blind the cameras. This means accidents are inevitable,” says Dudenhöffer. For him, the $30,000 cybercab is a bet that doesn’t work out.

Robotaxis already in use in China and the USA

The Tesla boss wants to transform his company from a car manufacturer into a robotics company. His vision is to operate a fleet of self-driving Tesla taxis that passengers can access via an app. Dudenhöffer points out: Robotaxes have been operating in large numbers in China for three years. By the time Musk launches them, they will be in all major cities in China. “Musk has no chance in China. He’s too late,” says Dudenhöffer.

And the industry expert also sees bleak for the domestic market. The cars from Google sister company Waymo make more than 100,000 trips carrying passengers in four US cities every week without a human behind the wheel. In San Francisco in particular, Waymo’s Jaguar electric vehicles, which have been converted into self-driving cars, are part of the cityscape. According to Dudenhöffer, Waymo is ten years ahead of Tesla – and Musk cannot make up for that in the next three months.

And Europe? According to Dudenhöffer, a fragmented market with high complexity. “The cities and the roads were created from historical developments and not from the drawing board. And that makes them complicated for AI cars, according to the industry expert.

The Tesla boss has had to repeatedly withdraw his optimistic schedules in the past. The “Autopilot” and “Full Self Driving” systems are, as of now, merely driver assistance systems in which the driver must constantly have control over the vehicle. So far, the company has not received regulatory approval for autonomous driving.

Cooling demand for electric cars

Musk announced the self-driving taxi years ago – first in 2016. Schwope therefore considers it unlikely that autonomous driving with the Cybercab will become a reality in the medium term. “The approvals for true autonomous driving according to Level 5 are hardly achievable with the Cybercab, especially as long as Tesla only relies on camera systems and not on lidar.”

With the robotaxi plans, Musk is also responding to the cooling demand for electric cars. The company may be facing a decline in sales for the first time this year. The vehicle fleet is aging and high interest rates are spoiling the desire for a new car for many car buyers.

Expectations among analysts and investors were high that Musk would unveil a working autonomous vehicle and plans for its market launch, including a timeline. The stock has risen 52 percent since the announcement of a robotaxis in April. Industry expert Dudenhöffer does not assume that investors will be blinded by the Hollywood show: “If you come too late, life will punish you. In this case it would probably be the investors.”