(CercleFinance.com) – Shell today published two scenarios examining the potential evolution of a world where energy and climate security are the main concern.
The company clarifies that its scenarios are not predictions or expectations, nor business plans but are one of the many inputs Shell uses to broaden its thinking while making decisions.
Baptized Archipelagos, the 1st scenario is ‘exploratory’ and presents how the transition phenomenon could stretch until the end of the century. Net-zero emissions could be reached by 2100 and the world will therefore have failed to meet the Paris Agreement target.
The second scenario, Sky 2050, ‘normative and extremely challenging’ shows how fast the world must move to meet the Paris Agreement target. Global climate security would become the primary concern as nations rush to switch to cleaner energy. This competition would drive rapid change and the world would reach net zero emissions by 2050.
In both scenarios, Shell sees fossil fuels losing market share. The energy system will decarbonize, the question remains: how fast?
According to Shell, the future of energy lies in electricity, although hydrogen and bioenergy will have their part to play.
‘Bringing the temperature rise below 1.5°C will require large-scale carbon removal and storage’ but ‘the average temperature rise is very likely to exceed 1.5°C’, concludes Shell.
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