RTL/ntv trend barometer
AfD again at its highest, Greens lose slightly
December 5th, 2023, 2:19 p.m
The traffic light parties continue to stagnate at a low level, while the Union and AfD together get 52 percent of the vote. In the new RTL/ntv trend barometer, CDU boss Merz can also make gains. He only doesn’t score points with women and Green Party supporters.
If there were a federal election next Sunday, only one in three voters would vote for one of the government parties. Together, the traffic light coalition only has 33 percent in the new RTL/ntv trend barometer. In contrast, the Union alone has 30 percent, followed by the AfD with 22 percent. This is the party’s previous high in the trend barometer, which it had already reached in mid-September and at the end of October. While the AfD gained one percentage point, the Greens lost one point compared to the previous week. The remaining values are unchanged.
If the election were held next Sunday, the CDU and CSU would have 30 percent (2021 federal election: 24.1 percent) and the AfD would have 22 percent (10.3 percent). The SPD would get 14 percent (25.7 percent), on par with the Greens with also 14 percent (14.8 percent). According to the new trend barometer, the FDP would achieve 5 percent (11.5 percent). The Left is at 4 percent, the other parties together have 11 percent (6.7 percent).
In a direct comparison of the possible candidates for chancellor, Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck fell by one point and is now at 18 percent. At 16 percent, Chancellor Olaf Scholz also achieved one point less than the previous week. CDU leader Friedrich Merz gained two points and reached 24 percent.
If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were to run for the Greens instead of Habeck, she would get an unchanged 17 percent. Merz also gains two points in this comparison and climbs to 27 percent. In this scenario, Scholz remains at 19 percent.
Green supporters would rather have Scholz than Merz
In a hypothetical two-party constellation in which Germans only had the choice between Scholz and Merz, Scholz got 36 percent, while 32 percent said they would vote for Merz. 32 percent would choose neither. Women would more often vote for Scholz (40 percent), while men would more often vote for Merz (37 percent).
The difference between Scholz and Merz is even clearer among younger people than among women: of those under 30, only 15 percent would choose Merz, but 45 percent would rather choose Scholz.
The survey shows again that Scholz is better received by SPD supporters than Merz by CDU and CSU supporters. 86 percent of SPD supporters would choose the incumbent if they had the choice between Scholz and Merz. Of the Union supporters, 66 percent would choose Merz.
The Greens’ supporters would choose Scholz by a large majority (70 percent), while the FDP supporters would lean more towards Merz (45 percent) than Scholz (28 percent). AfD supporters are also significantly more likely to support Merz than Scholz, but the majority (59 percent) would choose neither.
Few have hope in Scholz
However, only a minority of 23 percent of Germans trust Scholz to regain the trust that many citizens have lost in the federal government. Three quarters (74 percent) don’t trust Scholz to do that. Even among the supporters of the three governing parties, a majority do not believe that Scholz will be able to regain the trust he has lost in the federal government.
When asked about the party that can best deal with the problems in Germany, 15 percent named the CDU and CSU. The SPD is still at 7 percent, as are the Greens, who are giving up one point. The AfD grows from 7 to 8 percent. Only 2 percent of those surveyed continue to attribute political competence to the FDP. As in the previous week, 59 percent say that no party can deal with the problems in Germany.
50 percent of those surveyed named the Middle East conflict as the most important political issue, followed by the war in Ukraine at 30 percent. 29 percent mentioned the situation in the federal government and 28 the budget crisis. 17 percent are concerned about price increases and economic development and 11 percent are concerned about the issue of asylum and immigration. The issue of climate, which is currently being negotiated at the COP in Dubai, only affects one in ten people.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between November 28th and December 4th. Database: 2501 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. The data on Scholz and Merz’s candidacy and on trust in the federal government were collected on December 1st and 4th. Database: 1001 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 3 percentage points.