Wednesday July 21, 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
The lead of the CDU / CSU is shrinking
The CDU / CSU slips back below 30 percent in the RTL / ntv trend barometer. Three coalitions would currently be possible in a federal election. Both Armin Laschet and Annalena Baerbock are losing approval on the chancellor’s question.
In the week of the flood disaster, the Union parties lost their approval. In the RTL / ntv trend barometer, the CDU / CSU lost two percentage points compared to the previous week and fell below the 30 percent mark again. The SPD and AfD each gain one percentage point. The Union, however, remains the strongest political force with 28 percent, with a lead of 12 percentage points over the SPD and 9 percentage points over the Greens. The values for the Greens, the FDP and the Left do not change from the previous week.
In a federal election, the parties could currently expect the following result: CDU / CSU 28 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 32.9%), SPD 16 percent (20.5%), FDP 12 percent (10.7%), Greens 19 percent (8.9%), Left 7 percent (9.2%), AfD 10 percent (12.6%). 8 percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2%). At 22 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided also this week is somewhat below the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8%).
746 MPs would move into the new parliament in a Bundestag election, which would be 37 more than in the 2017 Bundestag election. The distribution of seats: CDU / CSU 229, Greens 153, SPD 129, FDP 97, Linke 57 and AfD 81 seats.
The strongest majority in favor of forming a government would currently have a so-called “Germany coalition” made up of CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP, with a total of 455 mandates. In addition, black-green (together 382 seats) and a “traffic light” coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP with a total of 379 members would be able to govern. The now ruling so-called grand coalition would have 358 seats and would thus be voted out. Even for a green-red-red left alliance (together 339 seats) it would not be enough to form a government.
Young versus old
The voting intentions of the young and old generation differ greatly. Among the 18 to 29 year olds, the Greens are by far the strongest party, with the over 60 year olds the Union is by far ahead. The 18 to 29-year-olds would currently decide in a federal election as follows: Green 36 percent, FDP 17 percent, CDU / CSU 16 percent, SPD 10 percent, Left 6 percent, AfD 4 percent, others 11 percent. For those over 60, the parties could currently expect the following share of the vote: CDU / CSU 36 percent, SPD 19 percent, Greens 14 percent, FDP 9 percent, Left 8 percent, AfD 8 percent, others 6 percent.
The former people’s parties, the Union and the SPD, would still have 55 percent of the vote among those over 60. Of the 18 to 29 year olds, however, only a quarter (26%) would choose one of the current governing parties.
Only Scholz remains stable
Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ candidate for chancellor, and Armin Laschet, the Union’s candidate for chancellor, each lose two percentage points in their preference for chancellor compared to the previous week. Nothing will change for the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz. If the Germans could choose their chancellor directly, 23 percent would currently choose Laschet, 17 percent for Baerbock and 16 percent for Scholz. 44 percent would not vote for any of the three.
The East Germans (50%), the secondary school graduates (55%), the blue-collar workers (50%), the self-employed and those eligible to vote, who consider themselves to be in the political center (51%), would not choose any of the three.
Armin Laschet has the least support from the former Bundestag voters of his party: Only 39 percent of the Union voters from 2017 would vote for him as Chancellor today. For Olaf Scholz, 44 percent of the SPD voters of 2017 would vote, for Annalena Baerbock 56 percent of the then Green voters would vote.
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