Wednesday 07 July 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
Greens lose, SPD increases
For the first time since March, the Greens are below 20 percent in the trend barometer, the SPD gains one point and comes to 15 percent. It is still not possible to form a government against the Union.
In the RTL / ntv trend barometer, the Greens have fallen below the 20 percent mark for the first time since March and are now reaching 19 percent. Compared to the previous week, the Greens and FDP each lose one percentage point, while the SPD and AfD can each gain one point. The Union remains at 30 percent and is therefore still the strongest political force.
In a federal election, the parties could currently expect the following result: CDU / CSU 30 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 32.9 percent), Greens 19 percent (8.9), SPD 15 percent (20.5), FDP 11 percent (10 , 7), AfD 10 percent (12.6), Left 7 percent (9.2). 8 percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2). At 22 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided is slightly below the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8).
With overhang and compensatory mandates, the Bundestag would have 42 more members than in 2017 and would have 751 seats in a current election. The mandate distribution: Union 247, Greens 155, SPD 122, FDP 89, AfD 81 and Left 57 MPs.
Given the majority in parliament, the Greens could not currently claim the Chancellery. Only two alliances under the leadership of the CDU / CSU would be able to govern: Black-Green with a total of 402 mandates and the “Germany coalition” made up of the Union, SPD and FDP with a total of 458 mandates.
Movement is possible until September
But what does a poll in early summer say about the election results in September? Four years ago, at the end of June 2017, the Union and SPD performed better in surveys than they do now. The Union came to 39 percent at the time, nine percentage points more than at the moment. The SPD reached 22 percent, seven percentage points more than currently. Except for the left, all the other parties performed worse in the poll four years ago than they do today.
According to the summer poll that year, there was still a lot of movement until the election in September 2017. The election result of the CDU / CSU was 6.1 percentage points worse than the poll result in June, the SPD came off 1.5 percentage points worse. The other parties represented in the Bundestag were able to gain: the Greens plus 0.9 percentage points, the FDP plus 2.7 percentage points, the Left plus 0.2 percentage points and the AfD plus 4.6 percentage points.
Scholz is on the chancellor question
As is well known, the Federal Chancellor is elected by the Bundestag in Germany. But if there were direct elections for the Chancellery, 25 percent would currently vote for Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, as in the previous week. Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock loses two percentage points and comes to 19 percent, SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz increases by two points and now comes to 16 percent. 40 percent would still not vote for any of the three.
Germans are more relaxed about the corona risk
Most Germans continue to classify Corona as by far the biggest problem, but the importance of the pandemic is shrinking. In March 2021, 72 percent of those surveyed saw Corona as the biggest problem, at the end of June it was 52 percent. Concern about the economic situation caused by the pandemic has also decreased in the same period, from 28 to 23 percent. The importance of climate and environmental protection is again rated somewhat more strongly by the people. In March, 15 percent saw this issue as a major problem; now it is 22 percent.
Many Germans also see the following as pressing problems: education 13 percent (plus 1 percentage point compared to March), social injustice 13 percent (plus 4), right-wing extremism 9 percent (plus 5), asylum policy 7 percent (plus 2) and health care 6 percent ( plus 2). As in March, 34 percent of those surveyed are dissatisfied with parties and politicians.
For 39 percent of the Green supporters, climate and environmental protection are the biggest problem – for AfD supporters it is only 6 percent. For 40 percent of AfD supporters, foreigners and asylum policy are the biggest problem – only between 4 and 7 percent of supporters from all other parties can agree with this assessment.
The data on party and chancellor preferences were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL from June 29 to July 5, 2021. Database: 2505 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points.
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