RTL / ntv trend barometer: Laschet behind Baerbock, traffic light would have a majority


RTL / ntv trend barometer
Lash behind Baerbock, traffic light would have a majority

The CDU and CSU lose three points in the new trend barometer, a green-led traffic light coalition would now have a majority. If the Chancellor were directly elected, Armin Laschet would lose to both Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock.

The new trend barometer from RTL and ntv brings bad news for the Union parties. You lose three percentage points compared to the previous week and are now 26 percent. The CDU / CSU was so far down for the first time in February 2000, after the donation affair of the former Federal Chancellor and CDU Chairman Helmug Kohl. The value was only worse in June 2019, shortly after the European elections. In the 2017 federal election, the Union had reached 32.9 percent.

The CSU loses less in Bavaria than the CDU in the rest of the republic. The Christian Democrats have lost eight percentage points compared to their 2017 election results and are now at 24 percent. The CSU lost four percentage points compared to 2017 and is currently 35 percent.

The FDP has gained two points to 10 percent, in the last federal election it came to 10.7 percent. The Greens won one point and are now 22 percent, they achieved 8.9 percent in the federal election.

Nothing changes for the other parties. The SPD is 16 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 20.5 percent), the Left is 8 percent (9.2 percent), and the AfD is 10 percent (12.6 percent). 8 percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2 percent). At 21 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided is below the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8 percent).

The Union also has to accept losses in terms of the competence of the parties. The CDU / CSU lost nine percentage points within a week. 18 percent currently see it as the party that can best cope with the problems in Germany. 9 percent of the Greens think so, 7 percent of the SPD and 8 percent of one of the other parties. 58 percent do not believe any party has political competence.

Majority for green-red-yellow

If it were now for the Bundestag election, the Greens would be the big winners: They would be the only party to send more MPs (plus 104) to parliament than after the 2017 Bundestag elections. The biggest loser, with minus 41 MPs, would be the Union. After an election, 718 members would currently move into the new Bundestag. The CDU / CSU would remain the strongest parliamentary group with 205 members of parliament, followed by the Greens (171) and the SPD (124). The FDP and AfD currently have 78 MPs each, the Left has 62 MPs.

For a majority capable of governing, 360 seats are required. Black-Green would have 376 seats, a traffic light coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP would have 373 seats. Neither for the currently ruling coalition of CDU / CSU and SPD (together 329 mandates) nor for a green-red-red alliance (357 mandates) would it be enough to form a government.

Habeck and Baerbock before Laschet

On the chancellor question, the CDU chairman Armin Laschet is losing support: his value, like that of his party, drops by three percentage points. His rival for the Union’s candidacy for chancellor, CSU boss Markus Söder, has lost a percentage point and has the highest approval rating compared to all currently conceivable competitors.

Against Green leader Robert Habeck and SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, Söder would come to 35 percent (minus 1). 20 percent would vote for Habeck and 16 percent for Scholz (plus 1). Against the green co-chair Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz, Söder would get 37 percent. Baerbock and Scholz would each achieve 16 percent.

If Laschet were the Union’s candidate for chancellor, he would have achieved 18 percent (minus 3). Habeck would be ahead of him with an unchanged 22 percent, as would Scholz with 19 percent (minus 1). Baerbock, as the Greens’ candidate for chancellor, would also be ahead of Scholz (19 percent) and Laschet (18 percent) with 20 percent.

As with the Union, the Greens have yet to make a decision on the candidate for chancellor. At the moment Habeck is doing a little better than Baerbock compared to Laschet and Söder as well as Scholz. Both have a slightly higher level of sympathy in women than in men. Habeck has somewhat more support than Baerbock among the Green supporters – 60 versus 53 percent.

The data on party and chancellor preferences as well as political competence were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL from March 16 to 22, 2021. Database: 2511 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points.

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