Tuesday, August 03, 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
Laschet falls further back, Scholz in front
In the Chancellor question, CDU candidate Laschet loses again and only comes to 15 percent. Green leader Baerbock achieved 18 percent, for SPD chancellor candidate Scholz 21 percent of the voters would choose. A coalition without a union is still unlikely.
A good seven weeks before the general election, the SPD can improve by one percentage point compared to the previous week. The other parties also gain one point.
The Greens and the Left both lose a point. The values of the Union, the FDP and the AfD remain unchanged. This means that the CDU / CSU is still well below the 30 percent mark, but remains the strongest party.
If the Bundestag election were to take place now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU / CSU 26 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 32.9), Greens 20 percent (8.9), SPD 16 percent (20.5), FDP 13 Percent (10.7), AfD 10 percent (12.6), left 6 percent (9.2). 9 percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2). At 25 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided is still higher than the number of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8).
750 members would move into the new parliament, 41 more than in the 2017 federal election. The Greens would grow by 97 and the FDP by 27 seats. All other parties would have fewer seats in the new Bundestag. The mandate distribution: CDU / CSU 217, Greens 164, SPD 131, FDP 107, Linke 49 and AfD 82 seats.
“Germany Coalition” currently the strongest government alliance
The parties need at least 376 MPs in order to be able to form a majority capable of governing. Currently three constellations are conceivable: black-green (together 381 mandates), the black-red-yellow “Germany coalition” made up of CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP (455 mandates) and a traffic light alliance of the Greens, SPD and FDP ( 402 mandates).
For the trend barometer, Forsa asked which coalition the Germans would most likely welcome. There is no constellation for a large majority. 24 percent are for the “Germany coalition”, 22 percent for a green-red-red coalition, which currently has no majority, and 19 percent for black-green. The traffic light has the fewest supporters with 10 percent.
Among the supporters of the Union, 49 percent are most likely to want a “Germany coalition”, while 41 percent would prefer black and green. 43 percent of the SPD supporters prefer green-red-red, 24 percent want the traffic lights. 48 percent of the green supporters prefer green-red-red, 33 percent black-green. 53 percent of the FDP supporters want the “Germany coalition”, 13 percent want the traffic lights.
Scholz in front of the chancellor preference
On the chancellor question, there is good news for SPD candidate Olaf Scholz. It is in first place in the trend barometer for the first time. If the Germans were to elect the Chancellor directly, it would currently be 21 percent, an increase of three percentage points compared to the previous week. For Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock, 18 percent would decide (minus 1), for Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet 15 percent (minus 2). A month ago, Laschet was still at 25 percent. Scholz gained five percentage points in the same period.
Laschet also has less support than the competition from the supporters of his own party. Not even half of the Union supporters (46 percent) would choose the CDU leader as chancellor. In contrast, 67 percent of the SPD supporters would choose Scholz and 68 percent of the Greens supporters for Baerbock. Of the Union voters of 2017, only 32 percent would vote for Laschet in a chancellor election.
Corona again the most important topic
The concern about Corona is still great. 56 percent of Germans consider the pandemic to be the most important issue. The storms, which were by far the dominant issue in the previous week, are considered important by 51 percent of those surveyed. In this week’s Forsa topic radar, the upcoming federal election ranks third (27 percent) ahead of the Olympic Games (15 percent).
The data on party and chancellor preferences as well as on the most important topics of the week were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL from July 27 to August 2, 2021. Database: 2502 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points.
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