RTL / ntv trend barometer: Laschet election gives CDU a boost

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

RTL / ntv trend barometer
Laschet election gives CDU a boost

With a new chairman, the Union is growing in favor of the voters. The CDU and CSU have increased by two points in the current trend barometer and are now 37 percent of the vote. The Greens give up, however.

After the election of Armin Laschet as the new CDU chairman, the Union parties have gained in popularity. In the RTL / ntv trend barometer, the value of the CDU and CSU increases by 2 points to 37 percent compared to the trend barometer shortly after Laschet's election on January 16. Greens and leftists each lose one point in the trend barometer, nothing changes for the other parties.

Accordingly, the Union currently comes to 37 percent of the respondents, the Greens to 18 percent and the SPD to 15 percent. Left and FDP now each have 7 percent of the vote, the AfD 9 percent. Another 7 percent would choose one of the other parties. At 23 percent, the number of non-voters and the undecided roughly corresponds to the number of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8%).

When it comes to the question of who will succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Union is one step ahead. If the German citizens could choose their chancellor directly, both conceivable Union candidates – CDU leader Laschet and CSU leader Markus Söder – would be ahead of the competitors of the Greens and the SPD. According to the current trend barometer, Laschet and Söder even gained 3 points each.

Söder and Laschet are increasing

37 percent of those questioned would elect Söder as chancellor. In the week from January 11th to 15th it was 34 percent. Unchanged, 18 percent would opt for Green leader Robert Habeck, 15 percent for the SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz – he would lose one point. If Laschet were the Union's candidate for chancellor, he could count on 28 percent of the vote – on the weekend immediately after his election, he still got 25 percent. Habeck would get 19 percent against Laschet, Scholz 17 percent.

After Laschet's election, 42 percent of those surveyed believe the Union can best cope with the problems in Germany. 5 percent say this of the SPD, 4 percent of the Greens. A total of 5 percent trust one of the other parties to do this. Most of the respondents (44 percent), however, do not attribute political competence to any party.

The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL from January 18 to 25, 2021. Database: 3005 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points.