RTL/ntv trend barometer
The Left falls below three percent, the Greens gain slightly
May 21, 2024, 2:01 p.m
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Things are not looking good for the Left Party. The party continues to lose votes and has dropped out of the individual rankings in the new trend barometer. In terms of chancellor preference, Foreign Minister Baerbock has managed to catch up somewhat with incumbent Scholz and CDU leader Merz.
A few weeks before the European elections, the Left Party is slipping further in favor of voters. In the new RTL/ntv trend barometer, the Left is again below the value of 3 percent, where it was the previous week, and is therefore assigned to the other parties by the Forsa Institute. The party had already fallen out of the individual rankings in April, but was able to get back to 3 percent in the past few weeks. The BSW party (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht), founded by former left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht at the beginning of the year, is stable at 5 percent.
Among the major parties, only the Greens can improve by one percentage point to 14 percent. The values for the Union parties, the SPD, the FDP and the AfD do not change compared to the previous week.
If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 32 percent (federal election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), SPD 16 percent (25.7 percent), AfD 15 percent (10.3 percent). percent), Greens 14 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent), BSW 5 percent (-), Left under 3 percent (4.9 percent).
In terms of Chancellor preference, CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck are each up one point. If the Chancellor were elected directly instead of by the Bundestag, Merz could expect 26 percent. Incumbent Olaf Scholz still accounted for 17 percent and Habeck 18 percent.
If the Greens did not send Habeck into the race, but Annalena Baerbock, the Foreign Minister would get 17 percent, two percentage points more than last week. Merz would gain one point and could expect 29 percent. Scholz still accounted for 20 percent.
When asked which party is best able to deal with the problems in Germany, 19 percent named the Union, an increase of one point compared to the previous week. 8 percent trust the SPD and the Greens to be politically competent. 5 percent expect the AfD to solve the problems in Germany. 56 percent believe that no party can deal with the problems in Germany.
The most important issue for German citizens remains Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; 51 percent of those surveyed cited it as relevant. 30 percent of those surveyed consider the work of the federal government to be very important, followed by the economic situation (23 percent) and, at 22 percent, the Middle East conflict. 18 percent of German citizens consider the upcoming European elections to be important.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between May 14th and 17th. Database: 2001 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Deutschland.