RTL/ntv trend barometer
Majority considers traffic lights to be “unprofessional and chaotic”
07/11/2023, 06:00 a.m
The Greens are again falling below their value from the federal election, while the FDP is gaining ground. Olaf Scholz can easily stabilize himself on the Chancellor question. Nevertheless, the opinions on the work of the federal government are clear: not good.
In the first trend barometer after the last week of the Bundestag session before the parliamentary summer break, the Greens lost one percentage point. They are again below their result of the 2021 federal election. The FDP gains one point, the values of the other parties do not change.
If the Bundestag were elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 27 percent (Bundestag election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 19 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 18 percent (25.7 percent), Greens 14 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 7 percent (11.5 percent), Left 5 percent (4.9 percent). 10 percent of voters (8.7 percent) would choose other parties.
At 25 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is still higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
Scholz increases slightly
Incumbent Olaf Scholz is able to stabilize somewhat when it comes to Chancellor preference. If the Federal Chancellor were elected directly instead of by the Bundestag and if CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Economics Minister Robert Habeck stood up alongside Scholz, 22 percent would choose the SPD politician. This is an increase of one percentage point compared to the previous week. Merz would still have 20 percent approval, Habeck would continue to vote 16 percent.
If Habeck did not stand for the Greens, but Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the result would look like this: Scholz accounted for 24 percent, one point more than in the previous week. Merz and Baerbock would each lose one point: 22 percent would choose the CDU chairman, 18 percent the foreign minister.
When asked which party is best at dealing with the problems in Germany, an unchanged 12 percent named the Union parties. 11 percent (plus 1) trust the SPD, 8 percent (minus 2) the Greens political competence. The AfD still accounts for 7 percent on this question, the FDP unchanged 3 percent. 57 percent believe that no party is able to deal with the problems in Germany.
Judgment about the traffic light is not good
In another survey for the RTL/ntv trend barometer, Forsa collected opinions on the work of the federal government. Just under two months after the new federal government took office in February 2022, only 30 percent of Germans were satisfied with the work of the traffic lights, this proportion has now fallen to 22 percent. On the other hand, 77 percent (compared to 64 percent in February 2022) are less or not at all satisfied with the work of the federal government.
A majority of the supporters of the three governing parties is also dissatisfied with the work of the government. This is especially true for the supporters of the FDP: only 29 percent of them are satisfied with the work of the federal government, 71 percent are dissatisfied. Among the supporters of the SPD, 48 percent are satisfied and 52 percent are dissatisfied, among the supporters of the Greens, 42 percent are satisfied and 55 percent are dissatisfied.
It is less surprising that supporters of the Union are predominantly dissatisfied with the work of the federal government: only 15 percent say they are satisfied, while 85 percent are dissatisfied. The ratio is even more extreme among AfD supporters: 4 percent satisfied, 96 percent dissatisfied.
“Unprofessional and messy”
After the urgent decision of the Federal Constitutional Court, with which the passage of the heating law in the Bundestag, which was planned for last week, was temporarily stopped, a majority of 61 percent believe that the traffic lights govern unprofessionally and chaotically. 35 percent consider this assessment to be exaggerated.
The impression that the coalition is governing in an unprofessional and chaotic manner is shared above all by the supporters of the Union (78 percent) and AfD (91 percent), but also by a narrow majority of the FDP supporters (51 percent). Only the majority of supporters of the SPD and the Greens consider this assessment to be exaggerated.
The data on political sentiment was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from July 4th to 7th, 2023. Database: 2501 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. The data on opinions about the work of the federal government were collected on July 6th and 7th. Database: 1002 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 3 percentage points.
More information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.