RTL/ntv trend barometer: Scholz is ahead of the chancellor competition

RTL/ntv trend barometer
Scholz escapes the chancellor competition

Less than two weeks before Christmas, the political mood in Germany is in a state of hibernation: the Union is the strongest party, followed by the SPD and the Greens. There are no big changes. Almost not: Olaf Scholz can increase his chancellor preference.

In the RTL/ntv trend barometer’s preference for chancellor, Olaf Scholz gained two points and is now well ahead of his two potential competitors. While 24 percent would choose the incumbent head of government, CDU and opposition leader Friedrich Merz and Economics Minister Robert Habeck would each get 19 percent from the Greens. They give up one point each compared to the previous week.

If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were to run for the Greens instead of Habeck, she would get 22 percent, just like Merz in this constellation. Scholz would get 24 percent. The values ​​of the three potential candidates have not changed compared to the previous week.

There is also no change in party preferences. With 29 percent of the votes, the Union of CDU and CSU is still in first place by a clear margin. SPD and Greens would each come to 19, the FDP to 7 percent – the traffic light combines 45 percent. The AfD comes to 12 percent, the left to 5. For the other parties, 9 percent would decide. At 24 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is slightly higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).

59 percent of people consider the war in Ukraine to be one of the most important issues at the moment. 50 percent mentioned the topic of energy and energy prices. On the other hand, only 18 percent consider football to be a particularly important topic, only 12 percent of Corona and 11 percent of climate and environment.

The major parties were able to gain some political competence. When asked which party is best at dealing with the problems in Germany, 12 percent answered with the Union parties, 11 percent with the SPD or the Greens and 3 percent with the FDP. 6 percent trust one of the other parties to be able to best deal with the problems. Significantly more than half, 57 percent, do not currently believe that any party is capable of doing so.

A large majority of Germans meanwhile have more rather negative economic expectations. As in the previous week, 65 percent state that the economic situation in Germany will deteriorate in the coming years. 16 percent expect an improvement – that’s another three points less than in the previous week. 20 percent – up 5 points – believe that economic conditions will remain unchanged.

The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from December 6 to 12, 2022. Database: 2506 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 2.5 percentage points.

More information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.

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