RTL/ntv trend barometer
SPD again in front of the Union, left in the basement
04/05/2022, 2:00 p.m
The Social Democrats gain three points in the trend barometer, while the Union falls behind. Chancellor Olaf Scholz can also improve his value, but not as significantly as his party.
In the week after the state elections in Saarland, there are clear shifts in the political mood at federal level. The SPD can also mobilize its voter potential nationwide and has improved by three percentage points in the RTL/ntv trend barometer. The Union parties, on the other hand, fall back by two points compared to the previous week.
The Greens also increase by one point, climbing to 19 percent for the first time since August 2021. FDP and Linke each give up one point; the Left Party falls below the five percent mark.
If there were a federal election now, the parties could expect the following result: SPD 27 percent (Bundestag election 2021: 25.7 percent), CDU/CSU 24 percent (24.1 percent), Greens 19 percent (14.8 percent), AfD 9 percent (10.3 percent), FDP 8 percent (11.5 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent). 9 percent of voters (8.7 percent) would choose other parties. The proportion of non-voters and undecided is 24 percent and thus slightly above the proportion of non-voters in the federal election (23.4 percent).
Scholz only gains one point
Unlike the SPD, Olaf Scholz can only improve minimally when it comes to chancellor preference and would currently be 43 percent, one percentage point more than in the previous week. Scholz would still be well ahead of CDU leader Friedrich Merz, for whom 18 percent of those entitled to vote would currently choose if they could elect their chancellor directly. In the previous week, Merz had reached 20 percent.
84 percent of SPD supporters would choose Scholz, while only 51 percent of CDU/CSU supporters would choose Merz. Conversely, 26 percent of Union supporters would vote for Scholz, while only 5 percent of SPD supporters would choose Merz.
In terms of political competence, the SPD can improve by three points to 20 percent. 11 percent of all eligible voters, one point more than in the previous week, trust the Greens, unchanged 9 percent the CDU and 3 percent each the FDP (-1 point) and the other parties respectively.
Only 11 percent of Germans currently assume that the economic situation in Germany will improve, while 72 percent still expect things to get worse. 16 percent do not expect any change in the economic situation.
The data on party and chancellor preferences were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from March 29 to April 4, 2022. Database: 2508 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/-2.5 percentage points.