Tuesday, October 26, 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
SPD and Merkel with losses
The SPD loses a percentage point in the trend barometer, the Greens and FDP each gain slightly. The incumbent Chancellor remains in first place in the trust ranking, but loses five points. In this list, FDP boss Lindner wins the most.
Four weeks after the Bundestag election, the SPD for the first time loses one percentage point when it comes to the Bundestag election and comes to 25 percent in the current RTL / ntv trend barometer. The two possible partners in a future traffic light coalition, however, each gain one point: The Greens currently have 17 percent, the FDP could count on 16 percent of the vote.
The values collected by the opinion research institute Forsa for the Union (20 percent), the AfD (9 percent) and the Left (5 percent) do not change compared to the previous week. The other parties lose a percentage point and currently come together to 8 percent.
If the interviewed voters in Germany could directly elect their chancellor, only 8 percent would still choose Armin Laschet. 52 percent (previous week: 53 percent) would opt for Olaf Scholz. Four out of ten eligible voters would choose neither Scholz nor Laschet.
When assessing political competence, the value for the SPD has fallen for the first time in four weeks. 19 percent (previous week: 22 percent) currently believe that the SPD would best cope with the problems in Germany, while only 7 percent believe the Union can do so. 9 (previous week: 10 percent), the FDP 10 percent (previous week: 9 percent) believe that the Greens have the greatest political competence. 49 percent of all eligible voters do not trust any party to be able to cope with the problems in Germany.
Merkel and Söder with losses, Lindner gains the most
In the politician ranking, Forsa regularly determines with which politicians the citizens see the country as “in good hands”. According to the first ranking of politicians after the federal election, those surveyed continue to have the greatest trust in Angela Merkel. The outgoing Chancellor claims rank 1, although her trustworthiness level has decreased by 5 points from 65 to 60.
The designated new Chancellor Olaf Scholz follows in second place with 53 points – one point less than shortly before the election. In third place, each with 46 points, are the Greens chairman Robert Habeck and CSU boss Markus Söder. Habeck can easily improve his value by one point from the last ranking before the election date. Söder loses 7 points compared to the September ranking. Then FDP leader Christian Lindner follows with 43 points. With a plus of 9 points compared to September, Lindner experiences the greatest increase in trust. Only one other political actor, the SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach, receives 40 trust points. The most popular CDU politician is the foreign politician Norbert Röttgen.
Politician ranking in October 2021 *:
- Angela Merkel 60 (-5)
- Olaf Scholz 53 (-1)
- Markus Söder 46 (-7)
- Robert Habeck 46 (+1)
- Christian Lindner 43 (+9)
- Karl Lauterbach 40 (0)
- Norbert Roettgen 38 (0)
- Lars Klingbeil 38 (0)
- Gregor Gysi 38 (0)
- Annalena Baerbock 35 (0)
- Wolfgang Kubicki 34 (+1)
- Volker Wissing 34 (0)
- Sahra Wagenknecht 33 (0)
- Jens Spahn 32 (-1)
- Friedrich Merz 32 (0)
- Heiko Maas 30 (+1)
- Norbert Walter-Borjans 30 (+3)
- Kevin Kühnert 27 (-1)
- Armin Laschet 25 (-5)
- Saskia Esken 21 (-2)
- Alice Weidel 10 (+1)
* Change compared to September 2021 in brackets – evaluation on a scale from 0 to 100; the mean value is shown in each case.
Merkel has a high level of trust in all age groups
The trust profile of the chancellor-in-office and the chancellor-designate differs significantly from one another in the individual groups of voters. While trust in Merkel is similar in all three electoral areas, East (59), West excluding Bavaria (61) and Bavaria (58), trust in Scholz in the East (49) and in Bavaria (51) is lower than in the rest of the Republic (55). Women have a higher confidence in Merkel than in Scholz (64 to 54).
While Merkel has a high level of trust in all age groups, trust in Scholz is significantly lower among younger citizens than among older people. Confidence in Merkel is equally high among those in the political center (63) or the more left-wing political spectrum (63), while trust in Scholz in the political center (51) is significantly lower than in the left political spectrum Spectrum (64). Only those who belong to the right-wing political spectrum do both have a similarly low level of trust (Merkel: 44; Scholz: 41).
Of the political actors in the Union, apart from Merkel, only Söder enjoys an above-average level of trust. In Bavaria, trust in him is almost as high as that in Merkel (57) and is higher than that of Scholz. Söder also has greater confidence in the political center (53) than Scholz.
The trust profile of the CDU politician Friedrich Merz, whom parts of the CDU still consider a suitable CDU chairman, is much more unbalanced than the profile of Merkel or Söder. Merz is more popular with men (34) than with women (30). He is hardly trusted by younger citizens. Merz also enjoys significantly less trust than Merkel or Söder among voters in the political center (40). Merz only enjoys trust in the right-wing voter camp (52). With Merz, the CDU would have no chance of regaining the political center that was lost in the September election.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from October 19 to 25, 2021. Database: 2510 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points. The politician ranking data were collected from October 20-22, 2021. Database: 1530 respondents.