RTL/ntv trend barometer: SPD falls to third place, majority for black and green

RTL/ntv trend barometer
SPD falls to third place, majority for black-green

In crises, those in government distinguish themselves – mostly. However, the governing party SPD is experiencing exactly the opposite: Now the Greens are overtaking the Social Democrats in the current trend barometer, while the Union remains at the top by some distance.

In the latest RTL/ntv trend barometer, the Social Democrats are only the third strongest party. The Greens are overtaking the SPD, and the Union can maintain or even expand its gap to the other parties at the top. The CDU/CSU, Greens and AfD each gained one percentage point in party preferences compared to the previous week, while the SPD, FDP and the other parties each lost one percentage point.

If there were a federal election now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 28 percent (Bundestag election 2021: 24.1 percent), Greens 23 percent (14.8 percent), SPD 21 percent (25.7 percent), FDP 7 percent (11.5 percent), AfD 9 percent (10.3 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent).

8 percent (8.7 percent) would choose other parties. The proportion of non-voters and undecided is currently 22 percent and thus slightly below the proportion of non-voters in the federal election (23.4 percent).

If they could elect the Federal Chancellor directly, 41 percent of all eligible voters (-1 percentage point) would choose incumbent Olaf Scholz and an unchanged 19 percent would choose CDU chairman Friedrich Merz. 86 percent of SPD supporters would choose Scholz, while only 51 percent of CDU/CSU supporters would choose Merz.

When it comes to competence values, the Greens lead

Since March, the chancellor has been losing popularity, but Merz has not benefited from it, instead the group that would not elect either of them to the chancellor’s office is growing.

20 percent of all eligible voters (+ 2 percentage points) currently trust the Greens, 13 percent the SPD, 12 percent of the CDU/CSU (+ 1 percentage point) and 3 percent each of the FDP or the other parties. 49 percent do not trust any party to solve the problems in Germany.

13 percent of Germans are currently assuming that economic conditions in Germany will improve, while 74 percent expect things to get worse. 12 percent do not expect any change in the economic situation.

The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from May 17 to 23, 2022. Database: 2505 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 2.5 percentage points.

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