RTL/ntv trend barometer
The FDP is threatened with a debacle in the European elections
March 15, 2024, 5:09 a.m
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There is still some progress, but the trend barometer for the European elections is sobering for the traffic light parties: the Union is doing better than the SPD, Greens and FDP combined. The poll numbers for the Liberals are particularly bitter.
In the European elections on June 6th, the Union is clearly ahead in the RTL/ntv trend barometer. A representative Forsa survey shows 34 percent for the CDU/CSU (2019: 28.9 percent). This is one point better than the three traffic light parties combined, which only get 33 percent overall.
The SPD achieved 16 percent in the survey (2019: 15.8 percent). The Greens slip to 14 percent (2019: 20.5 percent), the FDP drops to 3 percent (5.4 percent). The AfD comes to 15 percent (2019: 11 percent). According to the survey, 4 percent of voters would choose the BSW, 3 percent for the Free Voters and 2 percent for the Left. The other splinter parties together come to 9 percent. However, three months before the European elections, many people still don’t know whether they will vote or which party they want to vote for.
This is also indicated by the low mobilization rates of the individual parties. Of those who voted for the CDU/CSU or the AfD in the last federal election, only 64 and 67 percent would also vote for these parties in the European elections. The mobilization rate is even lower among voters of the traffic light parties and the Left. Of the SPD voters in the last federal election, 45 percent, 56 percent of the Greens voters, 22 percent of the Left voters and only 10 percent of the FDP voters say they will also vote for the respective party in the European elections want.
18 percent of those eligible to vote can “imagine voting for a party that they do not normally vote for in the European elections as a protest against politics in Germany.” In East Germany it is 26 percent and in West Germany 17 percent. When asked, almost half of those who could imagine voting for a different party than usual in the European elections as a protest against politics in Germany named the AfD.
The opinion research institute Forsa surveyed 1,008 eligible voters for the RTL/ntv trend barometer on March 12th and 13th this year. The statistical margin of error is plus/minus 3 percentage points.