Tuesday, September 14, 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
Union again over 20 percent, SPD stable
Is this the turnaround that the Union is hoping for? In the trend barometer, the CDU and CSU add two points. All other parties with the exception of the FDP do not change their values. Laschet is also looking slightly better on the question of the chancellor.
In the current trend barometer, the Union has gained two percentage points and has thus made it back over the 20 percent mark. However, the SPD is still four points ahead of the CDU and CSU. The FDP falls back to 11 percent, all other parties remain unchanged compared to the previous week.
If the Bundestag election were already now, the parties could expect the following result: SPD 25 percent (Bundestag election 2017: 20.5), CDU / CSU 21 percent (32.9), Greens 17 percent (8.9), FDP 11 percent ( 10.7), AfD 11 percent (12.6), Left 6 percent (9.2). The other smaller parties together achieve 9 percent (5.2). Among the other parties, the free voters reach 3 percent. At 25 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is higher than in the previous week and is slightly higher than the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8).
In the Bundestag (759 members), which is 50 members larger than in 2017 due to overhang and compensatory mandates, the Union would be represented by 178 members (68 fewer than in 2017), while the SPD could send 208 members to the Bundestag. The Green parliamentary group would consist of 141 MPs, the FDP and AfD would be represented with 91 each, the Left with 50 MPs in the Bundestag.
The following three-party coalitions would have a governable majority of 380 seats:
- an alliance of SPD, Union and FDP (477 mandates),
- a traffic light from SPD, Greens and FDP (440 mandates)
- a Jamaica coalition made up of the Union, the Greens and the FDP (410 seats)
- and a coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the Left (399 seats).
An alliance of the SPD and CDU / CSU would also have a majority again (386 seats). No majority would have a red-green government (349 seats) or an alliance of CDU / CSU and FDP (269 seats).
Laschet added two points on the chancellor question
In the Chancellor preference, Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet wins two percentage points compared to the previous week, while the values for SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz and Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock remain unchanged. With 30 percent, Scholz is now 19 percentage points ahead of Laschet and 15 points ahead of Baerbock. If CSU boss Markus Söder were the Union’s candidate for chancellor, 38 percent would choose him, as in the previous week. In this case, Scholz would vote 22 percent, Baerbock 14 percent.
When asked which party can best deal with the problems in Germany, 14 percent named the Union, two points less than in the previous week. 13 percent trust the SPD and 9 percent the Greens with this political competence. 11 percent trust other parties, 53 percent of none of them believe they can cope with the problems in Germany.
46 percent are satisfied with the federal government’s crisis management in combating the corona pandemic. 54 percent are not satisfied. The supporters of the FDP (37 to 63 percent), the left (36 to 64 percent) and above all the AfD (9 to 91 percent) are still above average dissatisfied. Supporters of the CDU / CSU (66 to 34 percent), the Greens (60 to 40 percent) and the SPD (55 to 45 percent) are mostly satisfied.
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