RTL/ntv trend barometer
Union continues to drop, Greens are catching up easily
6/20/2023 2:04 p.m
The Union is moving further away from the formerly 30 percent approval on the Sunday question. In the current trend barometer, the Greens are recovering slightly, the AfD is holding their 19 percent.
CDU politician Norbert Röttgen was still complaining early in the morning that the Union was not managing to present itself to voters as an alternative to traffic lights. The latest RTL/ntv trend barometer must now increase Röttgen’s frustration: The Union parties have lost two more percentage points compared to the previous week and have fallen to their worst value since November 2022. The Greens are slowly recovering and, like the other parties, each gaining one percentage point. All other values do not change.
If the Bundestag were elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 27 percent (Bundestag election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 19 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 18 percent (25.7 percent), Greens 15 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 7 percent (11.5 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent). 10 percent of voters (8.7 percent) would choose other parties.
At 25 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
In the case of Chancellor preference, there are almost no changes compared to the previous week. In the candidate constellation Scholz – Merz – Habeck, 25 percent would still choose the incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 20 percent (- 1 percentage point) for CDU leader Friedrich Merz and 15 percent for the Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck.
In the Scholz – Merz – Baerbock constellation, the values remain unchanged compared to the previous week at 26 percent for Scholz, 23 percent for Merz and 19 percent for Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
Parallel to the loss of favor with the voters, the Union is also slowly sinking in the question of political competence. 11 percent currently trust the Union parties to be the best at dealing with the problems in Germany. That is two percentage points less than two weeks ago and one point less than a week ago. 10 percent each consider the SPD or the Greens to be the most competent.
For the first time last week, the AfD was able to record a significant approval for competence, but this time it lost slightly, from 7 to 6 percent. 4 percent trust the FDP to solve the problems best. More than half of the Germans, namely 57 percent, believe that none of the parties is capable of doing so.
The data on political sentiment was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from June 13 to 19, 2023. Database: 2503 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.