RTL / ntv trend barometer: Union increases, Merz loses easily

RTL / ntv trend barometer
Union increases, Merz easily loses

The political mood in Germany is largely stable: for the CDU / CSU it is up one point, the FDP loses one point. In the CDU candidate race, Friedrich Merz surrenders two points and is now tied with Norbert Röttgen.

A good six weeks after its defeat in the Bundestag election, things seem to be slowly looking up again for the Union. In the current RTL / ntv trend barometer, the CDU and CSU have increased by one percentage point compared to the previous week. The FDP gives up one point, all other parties remain unchanged in the survey carried out by the polling institute Forsa.

If the Bundestag election were again, the parties could expect the following result: SPD 25 percent (Bundestag election on September 26: 25.7 percent), CDU / CSU 22 percent (24.1), Greens 16 percent (14.8), FDP 14 Percent (11.5), AfD 9 percent (10.3), left 5 percent (4.9). 9 percent of voters would vote for other parties (8.7).

If those eligible to vote could elect the Federal Chancellor directly, half of them would choose SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, regardless of whether the Union’s candidate for Chancellor was Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz or Norbert Röttgen.

With the Scholz / Merz alternative, 52 percent would opt for the Social Democrats and 17 percent for the CDU politician. If the alternative is Scholz / Röttgen, 51 percent go to Scholz and 20 percent to Röttgen. Among the voters of the Union, Merz (43 percent) and Röttgen (44 percent) would do better than Laschet (27 percent). However, not even half of the Union voters would choose Merz or Röttgen.

On the other hand, 33 percent of all eligible voters would opt for a candidate for chancellor Markus Söder. With the Scholz / Söder alternative, Söder would be 6 percentage points behind Scholz with 39 percent with 33 percent. With 73 percent approval, Söder was clearly ahead of Scholz with 8 percent of the Union voters.

In the assessment of political competence, the SPD remains at 18 percent, as in the previous week. 9 percent trust the Union, 8 percent each of the Greens and the FDP, to best cope with the problems in Germany. More than half of those eligible to vote (51 percent) still do not trust any party to have political competence.

Merz is losing approval

When asked which of the candidates currently being discussed is best suited for the CDU chairmanship, 17 percent each name Merz and Röttgen, 7 percent each name the incumbent Health Minister Jens Spahn or Union parliamentary group leader Ralph Brinkhaus and 3 percent the head of the CDU / CSU -Medial business association Carsten Linnemann. In the previous week Merz had led this ranking with 19 percent.

Almost half of those eligible to vote (49 percent) meanwhile do not consider any of the named candidates to be a suitable CDU chairman. In the previous week this was 39 percent.

Among the voters of the CDU, Merz is still 27 percent ahead of Röttgen with 19 percent. Brinkhaus consider 13 percent, Spahn 12 percent and Linnemann 5 percent of the CDU voters to be suitable party leaders. Almost a quarter of the CDU voters still do not consider any of the named candidates to be suitable.

Klingbeil achieved 41 percent of SPD supporters

28 percent of all eligible voters and 41 percent of the SPD voters consider the current SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil to be the most suitable SPD chairman. 25 percent of voters and 28 percent of SPD voters see Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania’s Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig as the most suitable party leader. SPD Vice Kevin Kühnert only consider 11 percent, the current SPD leader Saskia Esken only 4 percent for suitable party leaders. A third of those eligible to vote do not consider any of the named candidates to be suitable.

Klingbeil and Esken are to be elected as the new SPD leader or confirmed as SPD chairman at an SPD party conference in December.

The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from November 2 to 8, 2021. Database: 2502 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points. The data on the future CDU chairman and the future SPD chairmanship were collected from November 4th to 5th, 2021. Database: 1004 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 3 percentage points.

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