RTL/ntv trend barometer
Union jumps over 30 percent – traffic light without a majority
02/21/2023, 2:05 p.m
“28 percent are okay for the first year,” said party leader Merz recently in an interview with ntv.de. Now his CDU and CSU are at 31 percent – higher than they have been for two years. The lead over the SPD and the Greens is growing.
For weeks, the CDU and CSU scratched the 30 percent mark. Now both parties have passed the mark and landed at 31 percent in the RTL/ntv trend barometer, a gain of two points. The party has not had that much approval since March 2021. The SPD, on the other hand, loses two points and is now at 19 percent. The Greens lose a point to 17 percent. The FDP remains unchanged at 6 percent, the Left Party at 5 percent and the AfD at 13 percent. The other parties come together to 9 percent.
In the past few weeks, the Union has been clearly ahead of the SPD and the Greens. But the renewed leap in approval, now more than ten points ahead of the other parties, is probably also a consequence of the election results in Berlin. The CDU emerged from the elections to the House of Representatives as the strongest force. However, it is unclear whether they will be able to form a government. Because the existing coalition of SPD, Greens and Left still has a majority despite losses. The traffic light parties have lost their majority for the first time since the 2021 federal election.
When asked about the Chancellor’s preference, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s lead melted: compared to the previous week, he lost two points to 25 percent. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is still 20 percent just ahead of Green Minister Robert Habeck, who gives up one point and ends up with 19 percent approval.
If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were to run for the Greens instead of Habeck, she would get 19 percent, as in the previous week. Merz would also remain unchanged at 22 percent. Scholz would also give up two points in this constellation and now land at 28 percent.
There is also a change in the question of political competence. The CDU and CSU have gained four points and are now 15 percent ahead of the SPD, which has lost two points to 13 percent. The Greens remain at 11 percent, the FDP is at 2 percent (minus 1), the other parties at 7 percent (plus 1). 52 percent do not trust any of these parties to be politically competent.
The economic expectations of Germans have hardly changed. 19 percent (minus 1) expect an improvement, 57 percent (minus 1) a deterioration. 22 percent (plus 1) expect no change.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from February 14 to 20, 2023. Database: 2510 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.