Wednesday July 14, 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
Union stabilizes its lead
The Greens remain below 20 percent, the Union to 30 – the clear lead from last week is more stable. There are changes in the FDP and AfD.
Ten weeks before the general election and after major shifts in the polls, the political mood in Germany is now stabilizing. Compared to the previous week, the party values in the RTL / ntv trend barometer remain almost unchanged: The FDP gains one percentage point, the AfD loses one percentage point. The Union remains at 30 percent and thus still has a lead of eleven percentage points over the Greens and 15 percentage points over the SPD.
If the Bundestag were to be elected now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU / CSU 30 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 32.9%), Greens 19 percent (8.9%), SPD 15 percent (20.5%) , FDP 12 percent (10.7%), AfD 9 percent (12.6%), Left 7 percent (9.2%). Eight percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2%). At 22 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided is still slightly below the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8%).
Compared to the 2017 Bundestag election, the Bundestag would currently increase to 752 seats through overhanging and compensatory mandates, an increase of 43 MPs. The mandate distribution: Union 247, Greens 155, SPD 122, FDP 98, Linke 57 and AfD 73 members.
For a majority capable of governing, 377 members would be required, which is why only two government alliances are currently possible, each under the leadership of the Union: Black-Green with a total of 402 mandates and the so-called “Germany” coalition of CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP with 467 mandates . A “traffic light” coalition made up of the Greens, the SPD and the FDP, with a total of 375 MPs, would currently miss the governing majority by two seats. For the currently ruling coalition of the Union and SPD (together 369 seats) as well as for a green-red-red “left alliance” (together 334 seats) it would not be enough either.
All parties except the Greens lose 2017 voters
How confident can the parties be of their 2017 voters? A forsa analysis shows: In July 2021, the loyalty of those entitled to vote to most parties decreased significantly in some cases. 50 percent of the SPD voters from 2017 currently intend to vote again in a social democratic manner. In the summer of 2017, two thirds of the SPD voters from 2013 (65%) were planning to stick to the decision for the SPD.
65 percent of the Union voters of 2017 want to vote again for the CDU or CSU – before the last “Merkel election” in the summer of 2017, 71 percent of the Union wanted to vote. 54 percent of the FDP voters (July 2017: 66%), 55 percent of the left-wing voters (July 2017: 64%) and 56 percent of the AfD voters (July 2017: 62%) want their election decision in July 2021 from 2017 stay. Only with the Greens is the cohesion this year greater than in 2017: 74 percent currently want to vote green again. In July 2017, only 51 percent of 2013 voters said they wanted to vote for the Greens again.
Chancellor question: More for Habeck than for Baerbock
Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ candidate for chancellor, has come under fire in the past few weeks for having made false statements in her résumé and for copying passages by other authors in a book. Therefore, some asked whether Baerbock should not be replaced by Robert Habeck as the Greens’ candidate for chancellor. The RTL / ntv trend barometer shows that Habeck would do better than Baerbock – but the hoped-for boost for the Greens would not exist.
If the Germans could vote for their chancellor candidate directly, nothing would change for the nominated Annalena Baerbock, Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz compared to the previous week. Laschet would still have 25, Baerbock 19 and Scholz 16 percent. 40 percent would not choose any of the three. If Baerbock were to be replaced by Habeck, 24 percent would opt for Laschet and Habeck and 14 percent for Scholz. Here too, 38 percent do not want any of the three.
With the “chancellor preference”, Habeck would therefore achieve five percentage points more than Baerbock. Above all men and over 60-year-olds as well as supporters of the SPD and the left would rather vote for Habeck than Baerbock. Among the supporters of the Greens, Baerbock would have 71, Habeck 75 percent. For women and 18 to 29 year olds, both are almost on par.
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