RTL / ntv trend barometer: Will Scholz rule better than Merkel?

RTL / ntv trend barometer
Will Scholz rule better than Merkel?

There are disagreements in the negotiations between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. Nevertheless, they should form a traffic light coalition by the end of the year. However, a majority of German citizens do not expect the new Chancellor to do a better job than the incumbent.

Should Olaf Scholz actually be elected Chancellor, only 11 percent of Germans expect that he will govern better than his predecessor Angela Merkel. This was the result of a survey by the opinion research institute Forsa for the RTL trend barometer.

On the other hand, 20 percent of those surveyed expect the SPD politician to do a worse job than the previous head of government from the CDU. The vast majority of respondents (64 percent) assume that there will be little difference. That is not really surprising – after all, Scholz has been in the Merkel cabinet since 2018 and is her deputy.

Even among their own supporters, expectations of the possible future chancellor are not very high. 19 percent of supporters of the SPD expect better government work from Scholz than from Merkel, 6 percent say the opposite. The vast majority of 71 percent do not expect a difference.

Union supporters naturally see this more critically, after all, the CDU and CSU would be in the opposition in a traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP: Only 8 percent of this group expect Scholz to do better work, 34 percent to do worse and 55 percent to do equally good government work.

With Greens and FDP supporters, skepticism prevails

The expectations of the supporters of the possible coalition partners of the SPD look more or less similar. 11 (Greens) and 9 (FDP) percent expect better work, 15 (Greens) and 26 (FDP) percent a worse job. 69 and 61 percent do not expect any major differences compared to the Merkel government.

Interestingly, the expectations of AfD supporters do not differ greatly from those of the traffic light parties: 11 percent of them expect better government work from an SPD chancellor, 15 percent the opposite. 67 percent answer with neither-nor to the question.

The coalition negotiations between the SPD, Greens and FDP are in full swing. So far, observers have assumed that in the end there will be a so-called traffic light coalition, despite the disputes over, for example, climate policy. Should it actually come to that, Scholz will be elected Chancellor. The SPD politician would succeed Merkel, who sat in the Chancellery for 16 years.

The polling institute Forsa surveyed 1001 people between November 11th and 12th. The margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

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