RTL/ntv trend barometer
The entire traffic light government is slipping
18.06.2024, 14:04
Shortly after the defeat in the European elections, the traffic light government is also sinking further down the trend barometer, with the SPD falling behind the AfD again. Wagenknecht’s BSW, on the other hand, is steadily working its way up and overtaking the FDP.
The SPD, Greens and FDP have barely digested the significant losses suffered by the European elections, and the traffic light parties continue to decline in the trend barometer. All three governing parties lost one point each and together achieved only 32 percent approval in Germany. The Chancellor’s party SPD thus once again fell behind the AfD in terms of its score, similar to last winter.
For the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition, however, the upward trend continues. After being tied with the FDP last week, it can now overtake the Liberals. The Union’s value remains stable.
If the Bundestag were elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 30 percent (Bundestag election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), SPD 15 percent (25.7 percent), AfD 16 percent (10.3 percent), Greens 12 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent), BSW 7 percent (-). The other parties, including the Left and the Free Voters, account for 13 percent.
Things are going even worse for the Chancellor this week than for the governing parties. For the first time in the question of Chancellor preferences, Olaf Scholz has to give up the role of favorite and two percentage points to Friedrich Merz. With 28 percent approval, he is now two points behind the CDU leader, who would get 30 percent approval if the Germans were to elect their Chancellor directly.
When it comes to political competence, the Union improved by two percentage points. 20 percent of respondents consider the CDU and CSU to be competent, which is a record compared to last year’s figures. In 2023, the Union achieved an average approval rating of 14 percent for political competence.
The SPD lost one point and is currently considered by 8 percent of Germans to be capable of solving Germany’s problems. 6 percent believe the Greens can do this, and they also lost one percentage point. As in previous weeks, the FDP only achieved 2 percent approval for political competence. 6 percent consider the AfD to be competent, and this figure has also not changed. 54 percent do not believe any of the Bundestag parties have political skills.
In recent days, the European elections have been the most important issue for people in Germany. The election tops the radar with 62 percent, followed by the war in Ukraine at 43 percent. The work of the federal government is considered very important by 24 percent of respondents, and the European Football Championship is considered by 22 percent. 18 percent of Germans consider the economic situation to be an important issue, and 16 percent of respondents mention the Middle East conflict. Climate and the environment are only mentioned as important by 8 percent.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between June 11 and 17. Data basis: 2,504 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
More information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.