Runoff election for the presidency
Fico will continue to attack democracy in Slovakia
By Tomislav Delinic
April 6, 2024, 7:17 a.m
The runoff election for the office of president will take place in Slovakia this Saturday. The head of state does not have much power, but the election sends a signal. But no matter how it turns out, there is no reason for optimism.
If 100 days is generally used as an indicator of the direction a new government will take, in the case of Robert Fico’s government in Slovakia, a detailed map is available around 200 days after the elections: As soon as he took office, the party leader started – now strong populist-nationalist – SMER social democracy is a highly controversial judicial reform, from whose reduced sentences and amnesty regulations primarily actors in its environment benefit. Within a very short time, tens of thousands took to the streets, the opposition made up of liberals and conservatives joined together to demonstrate for the rule of law for weeks. The European Parliament also expressed criticism of the reform.
Almost at the same time, Fico dissolved the special anti-corruption prosecutor’s office, which also examined his previous terms of office. It would hardly surprise anyone if the experienced and specialized prosecutors were now dispersed to irrelevant positions in various authorities – that would also be a bitter blow to the rule of law. The path continues to the media, or more precisely: their independence. When asked what Fico thought about the widespread spread of disinformation in Slovakia, the 59-year-old all too often railed against the media, including the public broadcaster RTVS, as a source of Western liberal indoctrination against Slovak interests.
With this in mind, the Prime Minister is consistently setting about restructuring – from the opposition’s point of view: abolishing – the public media. An approach that is well known from other populist governments on the other side of the political spectrum, such as Hungary or Poland.
Even the Czech Republic is distancing itself from Slovakia
The government has also made a remarkable journey in terms of foreign policy: the EU and NATO have already put a question mark on Slovakia under Fico. Even the “brother state” of the Czech Republic is reacting: for the time being, Prague has stopped the joint government consultations that were introduced during Fico’s previous term in office. You can’t sit at the same table with someone who would so shake the common values within the EU and NATO, said Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
Fico either took into account or overplayed the fact that the meeting between Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who was under sanctions, during the Antalya Forum at the beginning of March would cause such waves. Robert Fico said after the announcement from Prague that his government would represent a strong Slovak foreign policy in all directions.
“In order to orient yourself well, you have to know where the north is,” comments opposition-backed presidential candidate and former diplomat Ivan Korčok. This Saturday he will face Peter Pellegrini, Speaker of Parliament and leader of the second largest ruling party, HLAS-Social Democracy, which governs together with the SMER, in the decisive round of elections. Korčok was able to win the first round surprisingly clearly and mobilized many voters who see the president as the only possible counterweight to the Fico government. Because Slovakia has no first chamber, no Senate or anything similar to balance the parliament. Over the past five years, President Zuzana Čaputová, who is quite popular but has suffered from many personal attacks well below the belt, has faced strong prime ministers such as Robert Fico and Igor Matovič. All too often left alone, she doesn’t compete again.
Will it be the votes from the camp of nationalists and disinformers that ultimately decide?
Korčok wants to preserve the pro-European and pro-Western face of Slovakia; as a directly elected president, he would have an important voice in the fight against disinformation and Fico’s aggressive narrative. At the same time, he represents the country externally, especially within NATO. His compass points clearly west. But he too is exposed to attacks and disinformation: he would send Slovak soldiers to Ukraine, lead the country into war, he would betray national interests under Western pressure, according to the left-wing populist government camp. Nevertheless, he was surprisingly able to win in rural regions too. According to Korčok, the Slovaks feel that it is about preserving democracy and freedom. In fact, 51 percent of those eligible to vote were the most people to go to the polls for direct voting in almost 20 years.
Peter Pellegrini, a former party colleague in Fico’s SMER, hardly comments on the harsh attacks on Slovak democracy. Positioned as a kingmaker after the parliamentary elections in the fall, the 48-year-old quickly decided to enter a coalition with Robert Fico and the Slovak National Party (SNS), which was riddled with disinformers and conspiracy theorists – in order, Pellegrini emphasized, to be a counterweight to Fico and a To be a bulwark for democracy and the rule of law in government.
But nothing of that can be seen. The HLAS party leader, who was actually considered pro-European and moderate, has lost his credibility. The fact that he is now, surprised by his defeat in the first round, addressing the voters of the pro-Russian ultra-nationalist Štefan Harabin (“As president, my first trip would be to Moscow!”) with all sorts of terrible news and warnings could win him a few votes , but at the same time cost the sympathy of his pro-Western HLAS voters. Korčok is currently addressing this proactively. All observers assume that the second round next Saturday will definitely be a very close affair.
Fico wins either way
Robert Fico is currently in an overall comfortable position: he is prime minister, his arch-enemy Čaputová not only had to appoint him, but is no longer running; and Pellegrini and Korčok choose the next president among themselves. Fico could live well with both of them. So far, Fico’s support for Pellegrini has been lukewarm. Perhaps not surprising, because just as a Pellegrini as president would pave the way for the government, a Korčok as president would only delay Fico’s plans; he could actually do little to prevent them. Čaputová has already experienced this.
A defeated Pellegrini, on the other hand, would be greatly weakened politically and would be a target for the strategic fox Fico, while a victorious, pro-Western Korčok as president would also be a target to be attacked. In any case, Robert Fico will continue to attack democracy and the rule of law in Slovakia. And that is a bigger problem for Europe and the West in the long term than one or two decisions within the EU or NATO – where Fico, clever as he is, has at least so far done more rage than harm. But at home he already does both.
The author: Tomislav Delinić has been heading the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s foreign offices in the Czech Republic and Slovakia since September 2020.